Minggu, 31 Juli 2022

TA: Ethereum Consolidate Gains, Why This Support Is The Key

Ethereum extended its increase above the $1,720 level against the US Dollar. ETH is now consolidating above the key $1,670 support zone.

  • Ethereum remained in a positive zone but struggled near the $1,785 resistance zone.
  • The price is now trading above $1,650 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $1,710 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
  • The pair could start a downside correction if there is a close below $1,670 and $1,650.
Ethereum Price Holds Key Support

Ethereum remained in a positive zone above the $1,600 level. ETH even extended its increase above the $1,670 and $1,700 levels.

It climbed above the $1,750 but there was no move to $1,800. A high was formed near $1,784 and the price started a downside correction. There was a minor move below the $1,730 and $1,720 levels. Ether declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,355 swing low to $1,784 high.

Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $1,710 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The price is now trading above $1,650 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

It is also consolidating above the 100 hourly simple moving average. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,720 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,750 zone.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The main resistance is now forming near the $1,785 zone. A clear move above the $1,785 level could even pump the price to $1,850. In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise towards the $1,920 resistance zone.

Downside Break in ETH?

If ethereum fails to rise above the $1,750 resistance, it could start a downside correction. An initial support on the downside is near the $1,670 zone and the 100 hourly SMA.

A clear move below the $1,670 support might spark a move towards the $1,625 level. The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,355 swing low to $1,784 high. Any more losses might even push the price to the $1,500 support.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is now losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,670

Major Resistance Level – $1,750



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TA: Bitcoin Price Struggles Below $25K, Signs of Double Top Emerges

Bitcoin failed to clear the $25,000 resistance zone against the US Dollar. BTC is declining and might break the $23,250 support zone.

  • Bitcoin attempted a clear move towards the $25,000 resistance but failed.
  • The price is now trading below the $24,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $23,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair must clear the $24,200 resistance to continue higher in the near term.
Bitcoin Price Signals Breakdown

Bitcoin price gained pace above the $23,500 resistance zone. There was a clear move above the $24,000 level and the price even broke the $24,500 level.

It attempted a clear move towards the $25,000 resistance but failed. A high was formed near $24,670 and the price started a fresh decline. There was a move below the $24,200 and $24,000 support levels to move into a short-term bearish zone.

Bitcoin declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $20,696 swing low to $24,670 high. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $23,750 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

The price is now trading below the $24,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The bulls are now protecting more losses below the $23,250 level.

On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $23,750 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The next key resistance is near the $24,200 zone. It also seems like there is a double top pattern forming with resistance near the $24,200 level.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

A close above the $24,200 resistance zone could set the pace for a fresh increase. In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise towards the $24,750 level. The next major resistance sits near the $25,000 level.

More Losses in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to clear the $24,200 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. An immediate support on the downside is near the $23,240 level.

The next major support now sits near the $22,750 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $20,696 swing low to $24,670 high. Any more losses might send the price towards $22,000 level.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $23,240, followed by $22,800.

Major Resistance Levels – $23,750, $24,000 and $24,200.



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Will The Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Breakeven Point Act As Resistance Again?

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holder SOPR is approaching the “breakeven” value, a point that has acted as resistance for the crypto’s price in the past.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Surges Up And Approaches A Value Of “1”

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the selling pressure from the short-term holders may see an increase if their SOPR keeps rising up.

The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (or SOPR in short) is an indicator that tells us whether the Bitcoin market as a whole is currently selling at a profit or at a loss.

The metric works by going through the on-chain history of each coin being sold to see what price it sold at before this. If the previous value of any coin was less than the current price, than that coin moved at a profit just now.

While the last selling price being lesser than the latest one would imply the sale of the coin lead to a realization of loss.

When the SOPR’s value is greater than one, it means the overall market is selling at a profit at the moment. On the other hand, values below the threshold suggest the average investor is moving BTC at a loss.

Now, the “short-term holders” (STHs) include all Bitcoin investors who sell their coins after holding them for less than 155 days. The below chart shows the trend in the SOPR specifically for this cohort.

The value of the metric seems to have observed some rise in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH SOPR sunk down below “1” a few months back, suggesting that these holders were selling at a loss.

During these last few months, the indicator has tried to escape this zone twice, but both times it failed and the price also simultaneously went down.

The reason behind this trend is that the “SOPR = 1” line represents the “breakeven” point for the market. As the metric hits this level, investors who had previously been at loss think they have now got their money “back” and thus sell their coins here.

This leads to a higher than usual selling pressure from the STHs at this mark, which provides resistance to the price of Bitcoin.

Recently, the SOPR for this holder group surged up and is now approaching the threshold once again. If past trend is anything to go by, once it tests the value, BTC may see some downtrend this time as well.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $23.7k, up 5% in the last seven days.

Looks like the price of the coin has been consolidating sideways during the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Amjith S on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Shiba Inu Breaks Downtrend Line – Is A Trend Reversal Imminent?

Shiba Inu (SHIB) along with another meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE) have had the worst crashes. However, SHIB is singing a different tune as it turns green after suffering a bearish downturn for a long time.

Unlike DOGE, the crypto community is very optimistic about the future of Shiba Inu’s price.

Shiba Inu is a popular dog meme coin that is said to rival Dogecoin. SHIB is a high-performer in the crypto space but also suffered a catastrophic drop like the rest of the crypto market.

However, in October, SHIB was able to bounce back by more than 100% and reached an ATH of $0.00008616.

Shiba Inu was built on Ethereum while DOGE had its own blockchain. SHIB went viral as it was treated like a joke on social media, especially on Twitter.

Basically, Shiba Inu initially was able to ride on with DOGE’s success as many people jumped in and bought SHIB to rake in from the positive market sentiments.

Crypto Community Predicts 101% Spike For SHIB

The CoinMarketCap community forecasted that SHIB will trade by $0.00002065 at the end of July this year. The crypto community, composed of around 16,403 members has predicted Shiba Inu’s price to spike by 101.30% or 0.00001039 from its current price.

As of this writing, the community members have voted and forecasted the SHIB price for August to glide to $0.00001761.  

Since January of 2022, SHIB has been on a steady decline seen mostly in May but the good news is that it generated short-term winning streaks as of press time.

The dog meme coin has dropped massively by 60.82% from $0.000034 seen on January 1 to now at $0.00001026.  As per CoinMarketCap data, the total market capitalization of SHIB stands at $5.62 billion.

The crypto market has crashed extremely hard but SHIB has suffered a more aggressive type of crash. Most cryptocurrencies have dropped by 75% in the previous months but SHIB lost as much as 90% in total value.

SHIB Outpaces DOGE, Breaches Downtrend Line

However, when it performed a bullish movement in October, SHIB was able to outpace DOGE in the top 10 crypto list. SHIB now has a loyal and raving community bringing in more investors.

SHIB downtrend was seen last year in November and prices dropped massively to as low as $0.0000077.

SHIB was able to breach the downtrend line which hints at a trend reversal and indicates robust validations especially with the crypto market flashing the green light. SHIB’s technical indicators show that there is a coming uptrend.

If SHIB can successfully breach the $0.000013 price barrier, it can offshoot to the next target at $0.000020.

SHIB total market cap at $6.6 billion on the daily chart | Source: TradingView.com Featured image from Cointribune, chart from TradingView.com

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Decentraland Up For 4th Straight Session As MANA Targets $1.5

For the fourth straight session, Decentraland has shown up and has seen a surge of nearly 2%. More so, MANA’s fourth day exhibited a price spike trading above $1.

Metaverse has been picking up steam especially since Facebook was revamped to Meta. Prior to that, Decentraland has always been extremely popular, especially for those who are into the virtual world but have grown tired of child play.

The Popularity Of Decentraland MANA

Basically, Decentraland was geared towards teenagers and adults who are looking to socialize, build, and earn with virtual land. All the virtual lands and assets seen in Decentraland can be bought with the MANA token.

Virtual real estate has also been very in-demand and MANA has been consistently shaping its virtual environment to provide sophisticated and breathtaking experiences for users where they are in complete command of their own virtual worlds.

Decentraland has become immensely popular and powerful that many giant companies like Samsung, Adidas, and Atari have also bought their virtual real estate properties right on Decentraland.

In addition, Decentraland has also entered partnerships and secured funding from companies like Genesis One Capital, George Burke, Boost VC, Animoca Brand; and the like.

However, despite partnerships and support from many popular brands, MANA still suffered some low blows in the last few months as it dipped by as much as 70% but was able to recuperate by 12% in July.

Decentraland Looking Bullish; Targets $1.5

Looking at the daily chart, there is a good chance that the price boost that MANA is experiencing will go on for the next trading sessions. Moreover, it shows a long-term upward trend. In fact, the Decentraland price target is $1.5 next.

Judging by the Williams Alligator trend, it shows a retrace on the upside which means that MANA will move towards August with a bullish move. However, that analysis may be refuted if the price will decline below $0.84 which signals a bullish standpoint.

Decentraland is looking bullish since Friday. The token is currently down by 6.31% on its five-day high and higher by 13.87% compared to its five-day low that registered at $0.8460.

Currently, MANA price is sliced in the middle of the support and resistance zone, with resistance found at $0.9997 and the support zone set at $0.9359.

Moreover, Decentraland has been trading on low volumes quite recently which signals that today’s trading volume is much lower than the coin’s average volume seen in the past week.

MANA total market cap at $1.91 billion on the weekend chart | Source: TradingView.com Featured image from VOI, chart from TradingView.com

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Sabtu, 30 Juli 2022

STEPN Kickstarts Gamers’ Interest As GMT Capitalizes On Bullish Retracement

And the game is on for STEPN as the GMT token plays in sync with other cryptocurrencies amplified for the bull run.  In the past couple of weeks, STEPN has been making upgrades on its network to rekindle the waning interest of gamers. And the token seems to be making a lot of progress.

The move-to-earn game has recently rolled out Health Points that set a certain life cycle for STEPN sneakers. They also were brewing an exciting STEPNrun Contest that is scheduled to kick off from July 25 to August 8 which is meant to get the word out about STEPN on social media. The contest is designed to run on both Instagram and Twitter.

GMT Token Price Warms Up At $1.01

The GMT token price is currently at $1.01 and is forecasted to take off in the past couple of days. It looks like STEPN is just warming up at this point with its recent updates.

When the contest was launched, GMT tokens gained support and advanced to $0.92. The GMT price has since then remarkably increased by 4% as seen in the past few days.

Alongside the GMT price growth, trading volume also surged for the same period. GMT’s trading volume has spiked by over 25% or at 492.16 million as of this writing. It only took a couple of days for the token to gain some traction. Additionally, GMT’s total token’s market cap has also jumped to $606.36 million from $553.76 million.

With the prices still showing an upward trend overnight, CoinMarketCap showed a 4.12% spike in STEPN’s GMT price in the last 24 hours.

STEPN’s GMT Token Set To Go Bullish In Coming Days

Meanwhile, STEPN’s GMT token seems to be hovering towards the overbought domain as seen on the 4-hour chat with the Money Flow Index or MFI at 74.02. Moreover, the token’s RSI was also spotted at 59.63.

On the other hand, GMT’s social dominance has lagged behind by 23%. Its social volume also declined by 67% as seen in the past couple of days. The token is seen to be moderately volatile or on the average when pitted against other cryptocurrencies.

With that being said, STEPN is currently in the top 43% of cryptocurrencies in terms of volatility.

STEPN’s GMT price is geared for an uptrend. With resistance at $1.03 and support found at $0.935037596620583, this sets up STEPN to go for a bullish movement before it faces hurdles from selling pressures.

Crypto total market cap at $1.06 trillion on the daily chart | Source: TradingView.com Featured image from Atomic Wallet, chart from TradingView.com

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How High Can Ethereum Go Before The Merge

The Ethereum “Merge” has become a hot topic among top crypto analysts after the incident that led to the collapse of the Ethereum network in the sale of Otherside by Yuga labs, with nearly $200M lost as gas fees.

Related Reading: Proof of Work Vs Proof of Stake – Laneaxis

The Ethereum merge, also known as Ethereum 2.0, is the upgrade of the existing execution of the Ethereum layer 1 from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-state (PoS), Beacon chain.

POW was first used by the early pioneers of the blockchain Bitcoin and Ethereum. It aims to achieve decentralization and security by using miners to decode cryptographic algorithms or puzzle-like maths. 

As the demand increases for transactions, it becomes slow, gas fees increases, and resources intensify.

Proof-of-Stake (POS) is similar to POW, just that users authenticate transactions on the blockchain employing stake and get rewarded. 

“The Merge” is a massive step for Ethereum and the community; it is important to note that the Beacon chain is shipped separately from the Ethereum mainnet. It means the Beacon works in parallel as POS, and all accounts, transactions, balances, and smart contracts remain secured by POW  until the final merge to POS.

Ethereum Price Remain Strong Despite Daily Resistance

Ethereum keeps showing great strength of bullish movement as the anticipated merge gets closer. Ethereum is currently trading at a resistance of $1,730 at the point of writing on the 1D daily chart. 

A break of this region would send Ethereum’s price to $2,400 and even higher if the bulls and sentiments of the market stay strong ahead of the merge.

ETH 1D Resistance On Daily Chart | Source: ETHUSDT On Tradingview.com

Ethereum looks really good from the chart on a daily timeframe which is a good sign as we head into a new month. Due to a low volume on a weekend, Ethereum would have a tough time breaking the resistance.

If Ethereum is unable to break out successfully, we could retest the region of $1,600 as the nearest support before a major upside movement.

Ethereum Price On the 4H Chart

Ethereum is currently facing resistance at $1,730 with a low volume accompanying it. If there is going to be a pullback over the weekend the support at $1,600 would be a good entry.

 

ETH Faces Resistance At $1,730 With Low Volume | Source: ETHUSDT On Tradingview.com

Related Reading: Will The Ethereum Merge Skyrocket ETH?

The relative strength Index (RSI) is above the 50 mark indicating the market looks healthy but with less price action. With bulls pushing Ethereum in the coming days, breaking the resistance at $1,730 would not be much of a challenge.

 



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Ethereum Price Surges Following The Final Testnet Details

The Ethereum community has been anticipating the move from the Proof-of-Work (PoW) to the Proof-of-Stake mechanism. Luckily for everyone, the Merge will soon occur, and reports show that the developers are approaching the final test phase before the significant event.

Tim Beiko, the lead developer on Ethereum, disclosed these details on July 28. According to him, the testnet transition will take place on the Goerli testnet, a close simulation of the Ethereum mainnet.

Goerli/Prater Merge Announcement

Prater will run through the Bellatrix upgrade on August 4th, and merge with Goerli between August 6-12th: if you run a node or validator, this is your last chance to go through the process before mainnet https://t.co/JAz5AJe12B

— Tim Beiko | timbeiko.eth (@TimBeiko) July 27, 2022

This version is known as Prator, and the date will be between August 6 and 12. The network upgrade will be called Paris, but another upgrade, Bellatrix, will position Prater well for the Goerl Merge.

According to Beiko, the date for the Bellatrix upgrade will be on August 4. However, the lead developer also stated that validators and those who run nodes on Ethereum should pass through the process to prepare thoroughly for the mainnet move to PoS.

Final Preparations Before Moving To PoS

According to the information released, the network has to complete one more testnet. The developers have completed many devnets, merges, and shadow forks on deprecated testnets. For instance, early in July, the developers ended the ninth shadow fork testing the MEV boost feature.

In the announcement, the lead developer stated that node operators must update their execution and consensus layer clients in tandem. But for stakers and holders of Ethereum, there’s nothing to do now. Those to take action are the testnet participants and node operators.

Regarding the significant Merge, the community already knows it will take place on September 19, as the developers previously announced. But if there is an issue with the Goerli testing phase, the date might be pushed forward again.

Merge Becomes The Most Significant Ethereum Upgrade

Since Ethereum started operating on July 30, 2015, this is the highest upgrade on the network. But the plans to migrate to the Poof-of-Work mechanism have been ongoing for some years. Unfortunately, the developers have had many delays, which haven’t been okay with the community.

ETH price is moving upwards on the chart. Source: ETHUSDT Tradingview

Thankfully, September 2022 will mark the end of the frustrations. For instance, traders have staked 13.1 million ETH on Beacon Chain, worth $21.5 billion. Even though these stakers earn 4.6% APY in Ether, withdrawing the gains will only occur many months after the Merge.

The announcement also brought another price surge for ETH as it gained by 15% on July 28 to sell at $1,667 during the morning hours of the Asian trading session. This position shows a 47% increase over two weeks, even though it has yet to reach its 2021 highest price point.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView.com

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Ethereum Bullish Signal: Exchange Inflows Decline To Low Values

On-chain data shows the Ethereum exchange inflows have declined to low values recently, a sign that could be bullish for the crypto’s price.

Ethereum 7-day MA Exchange Inflows Have Gone Down In Recent Weeks

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the ETH price has been reversing up as the PoS merge comes near.

The “exchange inflow” is an indicator that measures the total amount of Ethereum moving into wallets of all centralized exchanges.

When the value of this metric shoots up, it means a large number of coins are being deposited into exchanges right now. Since investors usually transfer to exchanges for selling purposes, such a trend can be bearish for the price of the crypto.

On the other hand, low values of the indicator can suggest holders aren’t sending in many coins to exchanges at the moment. Depending on whether they are also withdrawing or not, this trend could be either bullish or neutral for the value of ETH.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Ethereum 7-day moving average all exchanges inflow over the past six months:

The 7-day MA value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the Ethereum exchange inflows sharply rose up in June and hit a peak. The price simultaneously suffered a big hit due to the selloff.

Following this surge, the indicator’s value started to observe a decline. Around when the ETH developers announced the 19th September date for the PoS merge, the coin’s price started making recovery as the inflows continued to trend down.

Now the metric finds itself at pretty low values. There has only been one dip below the current values in 2022, which was back in March.

These rock-bottom inflow values can imply Ethereum might see more bullish momentum in the near future as long as the selling pressure remains muted.

The chart also displays data for the “open interest,” another on-chain indicator that measures the amount of positions currently open in the derivatives market.

It looks like the ETH positions have recently seen some growth. An active futures market can result in higher volatility due to excess of leverage, and in this year so far, high open interest hasn’t been constructive for the crypto’s price.

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum’s price floats around $1.7k, up 12% in the last week. Over the past month, the crypto has gained 56% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

Looks like the value of the crypto has moved sideways recently | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView Featured image from Bastian Riccardi on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Latest Report Shows Cryptojacking Increased By 30% During The Crypto Slump

The crypto industry is fraught with different malicious actors preying on unsuspecting users, especially the cryptojacking attackers. Many hacks and exploits occur in the industry, targeting crypto firms and individual investors.

According to data, crypto scams and exploits in 2022 amounted to $10.3 million from January to June. This shows that the industry is not safe to operate without caution.

Apart from exploiting exchanges and networks, cybercriminals also target individuals through cryptojacking. This targeted attack on someone’s computer resources to mine crypto without permission.

In cryptojacking, the lousy actor will infect the computer with mining malware through the target’s loopholes in extensions and browsers. This tactic might seem unpopular, but recent reports have shown that it increased by 30% in 2022, even with the failing crypto market.

Cryptocurrency market trends upwards on the day chart | Source: Crypto Total Market Cap on TradingView.com

This report emerged from SonicWall mid-year cyber threat update. According to the cyber-security company’s report, the volume of these exploits increased by $66.7 million compared to its figure in the first half of 2021.

Factors Increasing Crypto Scams

According to the company report, one of the factors that contributed to the increase in cryptojacking was the Log4j vulnerability. This flaw was discovered in December 2021, affecting a Java-based logging utility in Apache’s open source library. With this vulnerability, hackers can quickly access a system remotely and attack their targets.

Another factor leading to this increase is that cryptojacking is easier to perpetrate. This method of attack is not risky compared to ransomware in that the victim must be involved so he can pay the ransom. In cryptojacking, the target will never know that the network or computer is under attack.

Cryptojacking And The Financial Sector

From this data, it’s evident that everyone operating in the financial sector is at risk. People are more aware of ransomware attacks and have devised means to prevent them or decrypt their files. Also, cryptojacking wasn’t that common in the financial sector. But now, criminals have changed their targets from other sectors.

A recent report shows that finance and retail are at risk of this trend. The finance sector recorded a 269% increase, while retail saw a 63% increase in cryptojacking. This figure shows that attackers are targeting the finance sector more than retail.

Cyber-security researchers claim cyptojacking was intense in quarter one of 2022 when crypto prices were standard. The activities only began to drop after the crypto market crashed. As the sector lost massively, the targeted profits plummeted, causing the hackers to reduce their operations.

But judging by past trends, the researchers revealed that the volume of cryptojacking in Q3 will reduce but increase by quarter four.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView.com

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Jumat, 29 Juli 2022

Binance’s CZ: High Inflation And Recession Fears Will Drive Bitcoin Adoption

It’s safe to say CZ is bullish on bitcoin and crypto’s future. Changpeng Zhao visited CNBC’s Squawk on the Street and flipped the prevalent bearish narrative on its head. In less than 2 minutes. Most of the things CZ said are based on common sense and a basic understanding of market forces, but still, it’s calming to hear a leader of the industry saying them. Especially in this fear-ridden stage of the cycle we’re in.

.@binance CEO @cz_binance: The macroeconomics situation will be high inflation, the talk about recession…all of those things drive adoption into #Bitcoin.@CNBC pic.twitter.com/EP8OHwPeAa

— Squawk on the Street (@SquawkStreet) July 28, 2022

Notice that even though Binance’s business is dependent on altcoins’ performance, especially BNB, CZ makes a clear distinction between bitcoin and crypto in general. On the other hand, even though the interview is about bitcoin, CZ sneaks crypto here and there. 

In any case, let’s analyze what Binance’s CEO thinks about the current market conditions and the future of bitcoin and crypto.

What Did CZ Squawked On US National TV?

The first thing the interviewer was interested in was the way that bitcoin bulls have defended the “20Kish” line. According to CZ, that was “the last peak” so there’s a “psychological barrier” there. So far, bitcoin’s price had never go lower than the previous cycle’s all-time high. This time it was different, probably because of Tesla’s paper hands and the Terra collapse. However, the market ended up defending the 20K line.

The interviewer then asked about other factors, like the increase in money supply or bitcoin’s correlation to Nasdaq. According to CZ, those are two relevant factors, but in the end “it’s a mass psychology market” and the last ATH is the barrier. It’s only fair that we quote Binance Academy for an explanation of the psychology of market cycles:

“In short, market sentiment is the overall feeling that investors and traders have regarding the price action of an asset. When the market’s sentiment is positive, and prices are rising continuously, there is said to be a bullish trend (often referred to as a bull market). The opposite is called a bear market, when there is an ongoing decline in prices.”

Recently, as we regularly do here at NewsBTC, we checked on the famed fear and greed index for insights into the current market sentiment. This is what we found:

“Last week, the indicator’s value had risen up to even 34 as the coin’s price saw a recovery rally. However, as the run ended and the crypto once again slumped down, so did the sentiment among the investors.

The report notes that this trend indicates participants in the BTC (and wider crypto) market believe that this recent rally was just a fakeout.”

BNB price chart on BinanceUS | Source: BNB/USD on TradingView.com What’s the next catalyst?

Back to the interview, the next question was about what factor could catapult bitcoin and crypto into their next chapter. Cautiously, CZ said that no one can forecast that accurately. “Nobody really forecasted NFTs, DeFi, etc. Which probably drove the last bullrun.” And in 2017, ICOs seemed to be the catalyst. “Six months before those things happened, very few people can forecast it.”

In bull markets, exercise risk management.

If everything went to 0, will your life still be ok? If no, you invested too much. Reduce it by half and ask again.

Don't over invest. (Not financial advice)

— CZ Binance (@cz_binance) July 29, 2022

Then and only then, CZ speculated. He thinks that the market is so much bigger this time around, with so many new applications being developed. The whole space is moving in a positive direction, with most countries adopting regulatory frameworks instead of banning bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. It’s hard not to be bullish in an environment like this, even if the market is still fearful about the prices.

The last phrase is the funniest, and it goes into the current state of the world. “The macroeconomic situation, there’s going to be high inflation, the talk about recession, etc. All of those things drive adoption into bitcoin… into crypto.”

Featured Image: CZ, screenshot from the video | Charts by TradingView

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Solana Appreciated After Latest Development, What Are The Next Trading Levels?

Solana soared in double digits over the last 48 hours. The coin touched the $43 mark before it started to retrace on its chart again. In the last 24 hours, SOL just lost 0.1% of it value and stuck to its bullish price action.

Owing to its recent development, Solana has displayed a price rally. Technical outlook of SOL was also bullish at press time.

The altcoin witnessed an increase in buying strength. This has been influential in driving the price up. Solana has opened up permanent retail space in Manhattan.

These stores are specifically dedicated to all things related to cryptocurrencies.

Solana Spaces, CEO Vibhu Norby also mentioned that these physical Solana retail stores have an intention to introduce approximately 100,000 people each month to the Solana ecosystem.

He also hinted that there are possibilities to open a virtual storefront soon in the future. A grant from the Solana Foundation has helped the Solana Spaces to set up a shop in Hudson Yards New York.

Solana Price Analysis: Four Hour Chart Solana was priced at $42 on the four hour chart | Source: SOLUSD on TradingView

SOL was trading at $42 at the time of writing. The altcoin was finally able to break past the $40 price level. Overhead resistance for the coin stood at $47. SOL has struggled to move past that price zone for couple of weeks now.

For Solana to continue its bullish momentum, it has to trade above the $43 price ceiling level for a substantial period of time.

Nearest support line for the coin was at $40 and $38. If the coin loses the $38 price floor, the next support line awaits the altcoin at $36.

Trading volume of Solana registered a small decline which indicated that selling pressure might have been on the rise.

Technical Analysis Solana displayed a fall in buying strength on the four hour chart | Source: SOLUSD on TradingView

SOL had just touched the overbought price zone, however, as price gently moved south so did buying strength. Although there has been a fall in buyers, buying strength remained higher than selling strength at the time of writing.

The Relative Strength Index was slightly below the 60-mark which meant that buyers exceeded sellers on the chart. The price of SOL was above the 20-SMA line, the reading indicated that buyers were driving the price momentum on the chart. SOL was also above the 50-SMA and 200-SMA line, that indicated bullish force in the market.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Flirts With Hurdle At $24k, Why It Could Be In Early Days Of Recovery

Solana flashed buy signal on the four hour chart | Source: SOLUSD on TradingView

The altcoin reflected increased buying pressure on other indicators as well. Moving Average Convergence Divergence pictures price momentum and change in the same. MACD underwent bullish crossover and presented green signal bars which are tied to buy signals for the altcoin.

Bollinger Bands depict price volatility and fluctuations in the same. The bands have opened up wide which indicated that price of the altcoin could experience further volatility. For SOL to maintain its bullish stance, buying pressure and broader market strength will be necessary.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Breaks $24k As Exchange Whale Ratio Declines

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New Milestone May Be The Kick Dogecoin Needs To Break $0.1

 

Dogecoin has been enjoying the love being shown to it by prominent figures in the space, such as Elon Musk and Mark Cuban. However, the digital asset has not been faring well since hitting its all-time high of $0.7 in the middle of 2021. The decline in price that followed has seen Dogecoin lose more than 90% of its value since then. But a new development has begun to paint a bullish picture for the digital asset.

New Dogecoin Addresses Soar

One of the reasons that Dogecoin’s price has continued to suffer has been the lack of interest from the crypto community. Despite its community still pushing the meme coin, it was not seeing enough adoption to push the value of the asset back up. That is, until now, when Dogecoin is beginning to experience a significant uptick in interest.

Related Reading | Ripple (XRP) Is Up 190% From Cycle Low, But Will It Ever Reach $3?

New data shows that the adoption of Dogecoin is up, given the number of addresses that are transacting on the network. Data from IntoTheBlock shows that the number of new daily DOGE addresses had grown by a whopping 256% in the last day. 

DOGE price continues to struggle | Source: DOGEUSD on TradingView.com

Dogecoin has now hit its highest point in terms of new daily addresses, rising from its 14.4k point to the new 38.43k number. This increase in the number of people using DOGE on the network points to healthy growth for the meme coin. So despite the fact that the price of the digital asset is down by a large margin, it is enticing investors who likely see the current price of the digital asset as a prime entry point.

Better Days Ahead

Dogecoin has been seeing some good events happen in the last week. Besides seeing a significant jump in its daily addresses, it has also undergone an upgrade that has brought more good publicity to the meme coin.

Related Reading | Why Cardano (ADA) May Breakout In A Bull Run To $1

The team announced recently that the Dogecoin website had received an overhaul. Since the meme coin has been getting a lot of bad publicity lately, leading to FUD in its community, it has pulled out all the stops in an effort to combat this. Dogecoin Core also received an upgrade with the software version 1.14.6 going live this week. This was done in a bid to strengthen the network and make transactions more efficient.

On the investor side, Dogecoin holders are not faring too badly compared to others in the space. Data shows that the majority of DOGE holders are still seeing profit at 52%. This put 45% in the red and 4% of holders currently sitting in neutral territory. Long-term holder composition also continues to dominate, with 65% holding their coins for more than a year.

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Bitcoin Breaks $24k As Exchange Whale Ratio Declines

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin exchange whale ratio has declined recently as the crypto surges above the $24k mark.

Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio (EMA 7) Is Currently Below 0.50

As per a post from CryptoQuant, the BTC exchange whale ratio has gone down recently while the price has surged up.

The “exchange whale ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the sum of the top 10 Bitcoin transactions to exchanges and the total exchange inflows.

exchange whale ratio = sum of top 10 inflow txs (in BTC) ÷ total exchange inflows (in BTC)

Here, the ten largest transfers are considered as they generally belong to the whales. Thus, when the value of the ratio is high, it means whales are making up for a large part of the total inflows right now.

Since investors usually send their BTC to exchanges for selling purposes, this trend can be a sign that whales are dumping at the moment. and hence can be bearish for the crypto’s price.

On the other hand, low values of the metric can suggest whales are currently occupying a normal amount of the total inflows. Such a trend could be either neutral or bullish for the coin’s value.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day exponential moving-average Bitcoin exchange whale ratio over the past month:

The EMA-7 value of the metric looks to have been down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin exchange whale ratio (EMA-7) has been below a value of 0.50 for seven out of the last eight days.

The 0.50 mark is the dumping threshold for the EMA-7 version of the metric and as the indicator has been below this value recently, the selling pressure from whales has been low.

While the ratio has gone down, BTC’s price has enjoyed some upwards momentum as the coin surged up above the $24k mark earlier today.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $23.5k, down 1% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has gained 15% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

Looks like the value of the crypto has observed some upwards movement during the last couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Around ten days ago Bitcoin had recovered above $23k, but only a few days later the crypto’s price again started to go downhill. However, in the last couple of days, the coin enjoyed some sharp upwards momentum as it retook $23k.

Earlier today, BTC even broke above $24k, though it wasn’t long before the crypto saw a slump and came down to the current level.

Featured image from Karl-Heinz Müller on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin Flirts With Hurdle At $24k, Why It Could Be In Early Days Of Recovery

Bitcoin continues to trend to the upside over the short term as the crypto market hints at further gains. The bullish momentum seems to be driven by the positive earnings seasons and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates hike.

The financial institution announced a 75 basis points (bps) increase in interest staying within market expectations. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone believes the Fed might have marked the pivot for Bitcoin.

By staying within market expectations, the financial institutions might give room for the bullish trend to expand in the coming months. The Fed has been trying to mitigate inflation in the U.S. dollar, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

This metric stands at a 40-year high but seems poised to trend downwards. The Bloomberg Intelligence analyst claims the price decrease across the commodities sector hints at this possibility and could provide the Fed with the support to “lighten the rate hike sledgehammer”.

This would benefit stores of value assets, such as Gold, U.S. treasury bonds, and Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has been suffering, McGlone argues because it’s deemed a nascent asset with relatively new technology.

This disadvantage might fade into the background as Bitcoin’s adoption curve increases versus its total supply. As seen below, if the cryptocurrency follows the internet’s adoption curve, it could record over 1 billion users by 2025.

BTC’s adoption curve compared to the internet. Source: Visbitcoin via Michael Levin

In the short term, BTC’s price might benefit from mitigation in the macro-economic factors playing against it. The next major event will be July’s CPI print to be announced in August, which might result in more fuel for the current bullish price action. McGlone wrote:

(Fed’s) “meeting by meeting” comment may mark the pivot for #Bitcoin to resume its tendency to outperform most assets. New and untested are becoming past tense fast for the benchmark crypto, likely in the early recovery days from a severe drawdown.

Can Bitcoin Resume Its “Propensity To Outperform”?

Further data provided by McGlone shows a decrease in BTC’s price 250-day volatility versus the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index. As seen below, whenever this metric trends downside, the price of Bitcoin reacts moving in the opposite direction.

BTC’s price volatility declines versus Bloomberg Commodity Index hinting at potential price appreciation. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

A decline in BTC’s price 250-day volatility marked the beginning of the 2012 and 2017 rallies. In that sense, McGlone pointed out:

The lowest-ever Bitcoin volatility vs. the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) may portend a resumption of the crypto’s propensity to outperform (…). If history is a guide, Bitcoin volatility is more likely to recover vs. commodities when the crypto heads towards new highs.



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Impressive Rally Puts Bitcoin Above $24,000, But Is $28,000 Still Possible?

Bitcoin has rallied once more above $24,000. This impressive rally follows an intense week where the FOMC’s announcement has basically shown that the United States is now in a recession. Investors had flocked to the bitcoin off the back of the news, causing the digital asset to surge immensely during this time. As the digital asset has beat one important technical level, it remains to see if it can beat another.

Accumulation Triggers Rally

There are a lot of factors that usually trigger a rally, such as the one that has sent the price of bitcoin soaring high. One of those has been a renewed accumulation trend from investors who are flocking to the digital asset to provide cover during uncertain economic times. Such a rally, if it continues, can put the digital asset on a well-established bull trend.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Bounces Off Consolidation Range, What Lies In Store?

However, there are still obstacles in the way of bitcoin. This means that even though the digital asset continues to rise now, it could very well witness a reversal trend that sends it spiraling back downwards. To avoid such a fate, it is important that the sellers are completely cut out, replacing these investors and traders with more determined long-term holders.

BTC's hold on $24,000 remains shaky | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Whales have been a subset that has been trying to reverse the sell-offs. With the decline in bitcoin, it had presented an opportunity for investors to increase their holdings, and it was especially prominent among investors holding between 100-1,000 BTC on their balances.

Can bitcoin Reach $28,000?

Bitcoin’s recovery has put it on an impressive bullish path. However, this bullish trend has not been fully established. It has seen some obstacles along the way, and bears have begun to put up resistance in the market. 

An example has been at the $24,000 level. Although bitcoin has been able to beat this level multiple times, it continues to fight a hard battle to hold onto it. The mounting resistance at this point has proven to be an important level for bears to hold.

Related Reading | Elevated Bitcoin Open Interest Levels Puts Market In Vulnerable Position

For the cryptocurrency to reach $28,000, it would have to beat the resistance at $24,000 and further at $25,000. Furthermore, there is an expected resistance at $28,000, given that it was the yearly low for bitcoin in 2021. However, if accumulation continues to ramp up at the rate it is, the digital asset has a good chance of reaching this high.

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XRP Sustains Solid Momentum To $0.37 In All-Green 7-Day Climb

Ripple (XRP) has walked the last mile after it waded lows at $0.326 and surged by 16% in the last 48 hours. While everything is looking green and bullish, XRP is still faced with the $0.381 resistance, and if the coin fails to shoot over that means a correction is looming.

A candlestick close that goes under $0.381 can debunk the bearish outlook for XRP. Ripple price showed colossal strength as it ricocheted off a support zone that hereinafter triggered a bullish streak seen in the past two days. 

While it was looking extremely bullish as it was able to sustain its momentum at $0.37, investors can’t be overconfident as the recent rally could lead to a retracement or an extension.

XRP Pulls Off 16% Surge In 48 Hours

Ripple price was able to puncture right below the trend line which indicates buying pressure has paused. Even so, Ripple was able to pull around after soaking it up at $0.326. This evidently stirred up a 16% surge in a little over 48 hours.

XRP price may either go above $0.381 and make that as a support line or possibly retrace and retest the $0.340 zone.

Looking at the current market sentiment, a retracement is more likely to happen if the BTC price goes for a u-turn. In effect, the XRP price can always fall back to the $0.340 support zone. Now, if the barrier or resistance zone is breached, the Ripple price may plunge to the $0.326 level.

However, in the event that Ripple price forms a daily candlestick that goes above o$0.381, then this invalidates the bearish confluence. With this development, the XRP price can spike towards $0.439.

Can XRP Go Around The Bearish Divergence Pattern?

Ripple is currently painting a bearish divergence formation which should be taken seriously. The only way to go around the divergence is for the XRP price to plunge or if the XRP price can successfully increase and bypass the invalidation point seen at the $0.48 line.

A warning was recently issued on July 26 as the XRP price was jilted from a trend line that dates back to April of last year. In effect, a $0.24 target was announced which is based on Fibonacci and Elliot Wave projections.

On July 27, the Ripple price was seen to go into reverse with an upsurge in volume and an extreme bullish candle. Moreover, a 3-day morning star pattern was formed which encourages traders to remain glued to bullish targets.

XRP price may go as high as $2 or even $10 one fine day. However, right now, being overconfident about this can be extremely risky profit-wise.

XRP total market cap at $17.9 billion on the daily chart | Source: TradingView.com Featured image from Medium, chart from TradingView.com

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Kamis, 28 Juli 2022

TA: Ethereum Rockets Towards $1,800 as Bulls Take Over Crypto Market

Ethereum started a strong increase above the $1,700 level against the US Dollar. ETH is showing positive signs and might rise again towards $1,800.

  • Ethereum started a major increase above the $1,650 and $1,700 levels.
  • The price is now trading above $1,700 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,700 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
  • The pair could continue to rise if there is a clear move above the $1,750 level.
Ethereum Price Rallies Above $1,700

Ethereum formed a base above the $1,600 level and started a major increase. ETH was able to clear a few key hurdles near the $1,650 and $1,675 levels.

The price jumped over 10% and even surpassed the $1,740 level. The bulls pumped the price towards the $1,800 level. A new multi-week high was formed near $1,784 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a minor decline below the $1,750 level.

Ether price dropped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $1,602 swing low to $1,784 high. However, it is still well above $1,700 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,700 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,740 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,750 zone.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The main resistance is now forming near the $1,780 zone. A clear move above the $1,780 level could push the price further higher. In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise towards the $1,880 resistance zone.

Dips Supported in ETH?

If ethereum fails to rise above the $1,750 resistance, it could start a downside correction. An initial support on the downside is near the $1,700 zone.

A clear move below the $1,700 support might spark a move towards the $1,670 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $1,602 swing low to $1,784 high. Any more losses might even push the price to the $1,620 support or even the 100 hourly simple moving average in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is now losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is still above the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,700

Major Resistance Level – $1,750



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TA: Bitcoin Price Gains Momentum, Why The Bulls Could Aim $25K

Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $23,000 resistance zone against the US Dollar. BTC might continue to rise towards the $25,000 resistance zone.

  • Bitcoin started a fresh increase and climbed above the $23,000 resistance.
  • The price is now trading above the $23,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with resistance near $24,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair must clear the $24,000 resistance to continue higher in the near term.
Bitcoin Price Rises Steadily

Bitcoin price remained well bid above the $22,000 support zone. It formed a base above the $22,500 level and started a fresh increase. The price was able to gain pace for a move above the $23,000 resistance zone.

The bulls pumped the price above the $23,500 resistance. It even spiked above the $24,000 level and traded as high as $24,198. It is now trading above the $23,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a short-term contracting triangle forming with resistance near $24,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

It is also trading well above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $20,696 swing low to $24,198 high. Bitcoin price is facing resistance near the $24,000 level.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The next key resistance is near the $24,200 zone. A close above the $24,200 resistance zone could set the pace for more gains. In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise towards the $24,500 level. The next major resistance sits near the $25,000 level.

Dips Limited in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to clear the $24,000 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. An immediate support on the downside is near the $23,740 level.

The next major support now sits near the $23,370 and $23,350 levels. Any more losses might send the price towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $20,696 swing low to $24,198 high at $22,450. A close below the $22,450 support zone might restart downtrend.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now correcting towards 60.

Major Support Levels – $23,740, followed by $23,350.

Major Resistance Levels – $24,000, $24,200 and $25,000.



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Elevated Bitcoin Open Interest Levels Puts Market In Vulnerable Position

Bitcoin has recovered above $23,000 multiple times now, but the digital asset remains in a perilous position. This is because the recovery alone has not been able to assure that the bull trend would endure. Rather, it has been falling the brief buying and selling pressures that have been plaguing investors in recent times. The bitcoin open interest also mirrors this fact and shows just how easy it would be for bitcoin to lose its position.

Bitcoin Open Interest Stays Elevated

For the past week, the bitcoin open interest has been on the rise. After hitting above 300k the previous week, there was no stopping this part of the market. However, it also pointed to more peculiarities about the current bitcoin uptrend.

Related Reading | Why Cardano (ADA) May Breakout In A Bull Run To $1

For one, the elevated bitcoin-denominated open interest shows that there is very high leverage in the crypto market. As with any market, having such high leverage always puts the value of the digital asset in a perilous position. It could swing either way resulting in a short squeeze or a long squeeze. Whatever the case may end up being, the results are often the same; there are significant price swings that would go in either direction.

BTC recovers above $23,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

With the current movement of bitcoin, it is more likely that a long squeeze would be the end of it. This would likely see the price drop back down and touch $20,000. But if the off chance that it does end in a short squeeze, then bitcoin’s price could very well revisit $25,000.

Funding Rates Fall

Last week, the market had seen some much-needed bullish sentiment on the part of perpetual traders when the funding rates had recovered to neutral levels. Given that the funding rates had spent weeks swinging below neutral, this was a welcome change, however briefly.

It would seem the positive recovery would only last a single week as bitcoin funding rates have begun to swing back into the negative. It shows a straight decline down from neutral, indicating that traders were returning to more careful trades.

Funding rates fall below neutral | Source: Arcane Research

Interestingly, though, is the fact that despite the decline in the funding rates, they still continue to maintain higher lows. It shows better prospects compared to the month of June, which was characterized by funding rates remaining perpetually below neutral.

Related Reading | Bullish Sentiment Spills Over To Institutional Investors As Ethereum Inflows Balloons

What this shows is that although bitcoin traders are being more careful, they have not entirely written off the digital asset. This improvement in market sentiment has shone through in bitcoin’s recent recovery. However, for this to continue, funding rates would need a reversal from here.

Featured image from GoBankingRates, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com

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Top Analyst Predicts 60x Profits For Polygon, Cosmos, And Avalanche

The crypto market is trending to the upside and recovering some of its last week’s gains with Polygon (MATIC), and other altcoins following the general trend. Digital assets seem to be positively reacting to the earnings reports from legacy companies.

Related Reading | Why The IMF Thinks The Crypto Market Could See “Further Selloffs”

At the time of writing, Amazon (AMZN) beat earnings expectations generating over $130 billion in net sales. Apple (AAPL) also beat expectations with $83 billion reported in earnings.

Amazon +10% pic.twitter.com/T4twX73AKG

— TradingView (@tradingview) July 28, 2022

 As a result, the S&P 500 recorded a 1.23% increase at the U.S. close with the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones trading in the green. The crypto market benefited from these reports, as it continues to move in tandem with legacy financial markets.

Top crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe celebrated AMZN and AAPL’s positive price moves. The analyst believes the price action in equities will continue to spill into the crypto market. Via Twitter, van de Poppe said:

we’re definitely ready for fireworks (…). The entire market looks ready to continue moving heavily.  Many altcoins & Bitcoin breaking above 50-Day Moving Average. Bitcoin breaking above 200-Week Moving Average. Looks to me to see a continuation on those altcoins for 100-200%.

The analyst singled out Solana (SOL), Polygon (MATIC), Cosmos (ATOM), Avalanche (AVAX), and others with the best potential to benefit from a long-term bullish trend. These cryptocurrencies have the potential to record 60x returns “in the next bull cycle”, van de Poppe said.

In the short term, as mentioned above, these altcoins could register as much as 100% to 200% gains if the bullish momentum extends. The analyst claims most of these altcoins have broken above key moving averages and might find little resistance as they reclaim previously lost territory.

According to this analyst, Avalanche (AVAX) alone could hit a target of $37 to $41. Solana on the other hand might hit $62 to $84 and Polygon beyond the $1 mark.

MATIC’s price records important gains on the 4-hour chart. Source: MATICUSDT Tradingview Can Polygon (MATIC) Benefit From A Crypto Summer Rally?

The analyst claims the crypto market stands to benefit from a relief rally on the back of a dovish U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). The financial institution has been trying to mitigate inflation by hiking interest rates, and according to market expectations, this metric should trend lower in its July print.

In addition, the Ethereum “Merge” was set for September 2022. This event is considered highly bullish for the cryptocurrency which has provided ETH bulls with enough strength to push the market to the upside.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Makes Surprise Climb As Fed Discloses 0.75 Point Rate Bump

Polygon (MATIC), Avalanche (AVAX), Solana (SOL), and Cosmos (ATOM) might prove good bets in the long run due to the upcoming products, their partnerships with major players in and outside the crypto industry, and their development teams.

Ideal ingredients for a Summer Relief Rally are there:

Powell becoming dovish on policy and more data-dependent. $ETH merge coming up in September. Heavy impact on 3AC, Celsius, and more already priced in.

I’m seeing $ETH to $2,400 and $BTC to $28,000-30,000.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 27, 2022 



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Why The IMF Thinks The Crypto Market Could See “Further Selloffs”

The crypto market is trading in the green with Bitcoin and Ethereum pushing beyond critical resistance levels. The first and second cryptocurrencies by market capitalization record a 10% and 15% profit in the last day and seem poised for more profits during today’s trading session.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Makes Surprise Climb As Fed Discloses 0.75 Point Rate Bump

In order to get more clarity in terms of direction, Bitcoin must close the daily candle above $23,000 and Ethereum above $1,700. Data from Material Indicators records a thing order book on the sell side if BTC’s price can push above its current levels with high probabilities of hitting $28,000 in the short term.

If this rally can push past $25k, then $28k comes into focus very quickly. If you are long, don’t forget to take profits along the way.

When the bear wakes up from hibernation he’s going to be hangry. pic.twitter.com/YGe4Swu3wT

— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) July 28, 2022

In longer timeframes, macro-economic conditions will remain an obstacle to any sustainable rally. In that sense, Tobian Adrian, Director of Monetary and Capital Market for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted more losses in the nascent asset class.

In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Adrian spoke of the risk for the crypto market and risk-on assets, like stocks. For digital assets, Adrian believes that the collapse of a stablecoin could fuel another leg down. The IMF official said:

There could be further failures of some of the coin offerings — in particular, some of the algorithmic stablecoins that have been hit most hard, and there are others that could fail.

The IMF official referred to the collapse of the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem. This event led to the downfall of Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and other companies in the crypto industry. Thus, contributing to the crash in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Adrian claims digital assets might face another similar event but doesn’t mention a specific project with the size of Terra that could trigger it. The IMF official believes stablecoins might add to the selling pressure in the nascent industry due to the alleged vulnerabilities in its collateral:

There’s some vulnerability there, because they’re not backed one to one. [Some fiat-backed stablecoins] are backed by somewhat risky assets…it is certainly a vulnerability that some of the stablecoins are not fully backed by cash-like assets.

BTC’s price with important gains on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview Will The Crypto Market Collapse If There Is A 2008 Like Recession?

In addition to the alleged risk from stablecoins, the IMF official spoke about the potential risk of economic recession. The U.S. recently reported its second consecutive quarter with a negative GDP, which should technically spell economic recession.

However, Adrian ruled out that the global market would see something like in 2008. At that time the financial sector was exposed to “shadow banking”, to assets hidden from the banks’ balance sheets which collapse worsening the economic crisis.

Cryptocurrencies could face a bigger obstacle from international regulators. The IMF official claimed that these entities should enforce securities laws to the 40,000 he claims comprised the sector. He added:

Regulating the coins themselves is going to be difficult but regulating the entry points such as exchanges and wallet providers to invest in those coins, that’s something that is very concrete and very feasible.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seems to be following this approach. The Commission has entered into legal battles with major players in the sector, including payment solutions company Ripple and crypto exchange Coinbase.

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler already stated that he is willing to acknowledge that only Bitcoin is out of their jurisdiction. If the Commission turns more aggressive, the crypto market could suffer as crypto projects scramble to meet regulations requirements.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Bounces Off Consolidation Range, What Lies In Store?

This is probably one of the biggest obstacles for the nascent asset class in the coming months along with macro-economic conditions. In that sense, the IMF official might be on point, but cryptocurrencies have been facing regulatory hostilities since their inception.



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Bitcoin Bounces Off Consolidation Range, What Lies In Store?

Bitcoin has been on a steady increase over the last two weeks. It has not been on the uptrend for all of this time, but the majority of the time, the digital asset has maintained this upward trajectory. This has seen it touch above $24,000 at one point after bouncing off its strong consolidation point. Now, as the digital asset trails $23,000, a couple of technical levels have begun to form beneath it.

Bitcoin Begins To Form Support

Bitcoin has broken above $23,000 once more, and support has begun to form. After previously losing its footing and falling to $21,000, the digital asset had seen support pushed down to $19,000, but this would change soon after. As bitcoin continues its uptrend, it is now looking at support at $21,000, much stronger than previously established.

Related Reading | Bullish Sentiment Spills Over To Institutional Investors As Ethereum Inflows Balloons

However, for the digital asset to continue on this bull rally, it would need to break some important technical levels. The first would be the $25,000 range, where the most resistance is currently being mounted. A widespread accumulation trend would be the only likely fuel to break through this level. After which, the nearest resistance would be formed at $28,000 due to it being the lowest point for the 2021 cycle.

BTC continues recovery trend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

On the other side of this, the digital asset still has some potential to fall back down. This would put it in the direct path of the $21,000 support, but this is unlikely to hold for the long term. The next significant support level would fall to $19,700, which represents the peak of the 2018 bull cycle. Hence, the support put up here would be strengthened compared to that at $19,000. But if this fails to hold, $17,600 would present to be the next important level due to being the current cycle low.

Related Reading | Ripple (XRP) Is Up 190% From Cycle Low, But Will It Ever Reach $3?

For now, as bitcoin climbs up, it is still expected to meet resistance at $24,000, which was the point it failed to beat last week. This makes it the most immediate threat for bulls in the quest to retake $30,000. This point determines if bitcoin would be able to break above the 50-day moving average, which would determine a bearish or bullish trend for the short term.

Sell-offs remain the major thing that is pulling back the value of bitcoin, though. While the short term is beginning to turn in favor of buy, the long-term outlook still poses a sell for investors. These sell-offs, which are yet to reach a fatigue point, are most likely the culprit behind bitcoin’s inability to breach $24,000 successfully.

Featured image from The Financial Express, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Makes Surprise Climb As Fed Discloses 0.75 Point Rate Bump

Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market have been in a festive mood in response to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, sending  both Bitcoin and Ethereum climbing in prices.

The Fed’s announcement has sent Bitcoin’s price up by 5%. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $22,837, up 7 percent in the last 24 hours. More so, Ethereum’s price also spiked by 11.6%; hitting $1,550, data from Coingecko show, Thursday.

In fact, the entire crypto market is on a positive outlook with the total crypto market cap at $1 trillion.

Bitcoin was down the past week with its price plunging below $21,000. But, with Fed’s latest 0.75% rate bump, the BTC price has skyrocketed once again.

Fed Battling Inflation With Interest Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve attempts to buffer inflation with a 0.75% rate increase. The central bank’s move on the rate hike is said to be in the country’s best interest especially since the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently broke it to the public that the Consumer Price Index or inflation rate is at 9.1% in June, a 40-year high.

The Fed’s continuing rate hikes have sent the negative message that the country could be in danger of a recession.

It triggered a domino effect. Following the Fed’s rate hike, the U.S. interest rates have also spiked at a range of 2.25% and 2.5% which is at extreme levels since the COVID-19 pandemic started. The U.S. central bank has recently revealed this development at the Federal Open Market Committee held Wednesday.

Related Reading | BNB Basks In The Green As Price Glows 5.84% In Fields Of Red

Survey: 96% Of Americans Worried About Inflation

The Fed has been trying to put a rein on the high prices with an increase in interest rates for the longest time. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed that the biggest factors adding up to the inflation rate are shelter, gasoline, and food price hikes.

Reportedly, a CNBC poll revealed that around 96% of Americans have been particularly worried or concerned lately regarding the gas, shelter, and food price increase.  

Image: Beinchain

To beat inflation, the Fed has the option to constrict the supply of money. So, it resorts to bumping the interest rates which in effect, makes loans expensive. The 0.75% rate hike was expected although it was earlier ruminated that the central bank may go for a 1% rate hike when inflation mellowed in June.

Related Reading | GNOX Set To Overtake APE, MATIC As Token’s Price Continues Ascent

The recurring high prices and interest rate hikes have fueled fear in citizens as the danger of a recession continues to escalate. It has heightened levels of uncertainty in global markets especially because a recession would most likely happen following two straight quarterly GDP drops.

The GDP as presented by the Bureau of Economic Analysis has shown that the economy has dwindled by 1.6% as shown in the first financial quarter and economists are concerned that a decline is possible too for the second quarter.

GDP Q2 numbers will be announced tomorrow. And the White House has already prepared the public for this important announcement with an interview transcript and blog post by Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary who has set the records straight that two consecutive quarters is not indicative of a recession.

More so, U.S. President Biden made an assurance of sorts that the country is not going to face a recession.

Crypto total market cap at $1.02 trillion on the daily chart | Source: TradingView.com Featured image from Euronews, chart from TradingView.com

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Rabu, 27 Juli 2022

Why Ethereum Classic (ETC) Leads Crypto Market In Latest Week With 16% Surge

As the crypto market trended to the downside, Ethereum Classic (ETC) took advantage. The original Ethereum blockchain records double-digit profits across multiple timeframes and seems on track for future appreciation.

Related Reading | Cardano Moves In The Red With The Market, Can The Price Of ADA Stay Above $0.46?

At the time of writing, Ethereum Classic (ETC) trades at $30 with a 27% profit in the past day and a 20% profit over the past week. Data from Coingecko indicates that ETC’s price has been the best performing asset in the sector followed by Lido DAO (LDO).

ETC’s price with important gains on the 4-hour chart. Source: ETCUSDT Tradingview

This cryptocurrency records a higher increase than ETC’s price in the past 24 hours with 41% profits. Ethereum Classic has outperformed it in the past week, but it’s noteworthy that these two cryptocurrencies are rallying.

Lido DAO is a platform that offers users Ethereum (ETH) staking services. This allows retail investors to lock their ETH and receive a portion of the rewards from the upcoming Proof-of-Stake (PoS) migration without meeting the 30 ETH requirement.

Ethereum Classic (ETC) Will Extend Gains With “The Merge”

On the other hand, Ethereum Classic (ETC) is perceived as the alternative for ETH miners for when this blockchain completes its migration to a PoS consensus. This process is set to be completed in September 2022, with “The Merge”.

An event that will combine Ethereum’s execution layer with its consensus layer, ETH core developers only recently announced a fix tentative data for its mainnet launch. The blockchain has seen two successful implementations of “The Merge” on major Ethereum testnets.

This event represents the end of the ETH mining sector as it exists today. The PoS blockchain will validate transactions with a different mechanism.

Thus, miners will have to scramble to secure other Proof-of-Work (PoW) networks, like Ethereum Classic. As the chances of “The Merge” mainnet implementation increase, ETC’s price seems likely to follow.

Related Reading | Dogecoin Seen Doubling In Price, Despite Shedding 10% In Last 7 Days

Data from Material Indicators shows an increase in buying pressure from investors with bid orders of around $1,000. This spike was recorded close to “The Merge” tentative mainnet launch announcement.

Investors with bid orders of around $1,000 (green on the chart) buy into ETC’s price action. Source: Material Indicators

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BNB Basks In The Green As Price Glows 5.84% In Fields Of Red

While the rest of the tokens are smothered in red Wednesday, Binance Coin (BNB) is relishing its place in the green zone for the third day in a row this week.

Binance Coin’s price surged by 5.84% and is currently trading at $256.54 as of this writing. The coin currently has a total market cap of $41,367,894,785.

The coin is primarily targeting 61.80% on the upside, and then shooting for the next target at $265.7. Its third target is 23.60%.

Related Reading | Shiba Inu Whales Trading Volume Surges 640% As SHIB Holds Critical Support

BNB is bracing itself on the downside at a fib level of 98%; next is at 127.20%, and the third at 161.80%. Its 24-hour price outlook is at the $293.6 to $249.8 range.

The 24-hour price range for BNB is between $239.6 and $249.8. In addition, the coin’s weekly or 7-day price range is seen between $239.6 and $270.93. On average, the 30-day price is at $239.6, or a spike of 1.17%.

For Reference: BNB Price On Same Date In 2021 At $313.7

Binance Coin was reported at $249.3 yesterday and in the green lane for the second day in a row.

According to Fintech and crypto analysts, BNB is forecasted to end in 2022 at $274. Finder polled around 54 individuals and predicted that BNB price will shoot for $781 in 2023.

Kevin He, CloudTech Group COO, made a forecast that BNB will gallop at $250 by the end of the year. More so, He predicted that BNB will soar to $1,000 by 2030, He believes that the coin will come on strong mainly because of Binance’s robust ecosystem.

Joseph Raczynski, a Thomson Reuters futurist, and technologist, who believes in the power and dominance of Binance as a global change, is extremely bullish than other panelists.

Raczynski is fully convinced that “While BNB is not decentralized; it still can serve a purpose for fast and cheap transactions. That has a cost though. Binance could change parameters on the token without general consensus and they are far more likely to be a single point of failure.”

BNB total market cap at $41.5 billion on the weekend chart | Source: TradingView.com

Related Reading | Cardano Joins The Red Screen – How ADA Fell To $0.45 Over Last 24 Hours

BNB Seen Climbing To $3,000 In 2030

Ben Ritchie, Digital Capital Management managing director, believes that the BNB ecosystem is bound to continuously grow and can even soar to $3,000 in 2030.

Meanwhile, BNB Chain is also bent to build a layer 2 chain in the Binance networks which are incredibly helpful in buffering the costs and expensive gas fees in the future which are also the same problems experienced by Ethereum.

With Binance Coin issues with SEC, Martin Froehler, Morpher CEO, believes that SEC has this thinking that every single crypto is a security and that BNB was in effect sold to U.S. customers.

Roughly 50% of the panelists recommend holding Binance Coin, 30% say yes to selling the coin, while 20% say to buy BNB.

Featured image from Finance Zipmex, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Buyers Reluctant To Step In, Fear And Greed Index Suggests

Data shows the Bitcoin investor sentiment has recently improved, but buyers are still reluctant as fear continues in the market.

Bitcoin Fear And Greed Index Points To A Fearful Sentiment

As per the latest weekly report from Arcane Research, the BTC market sentiment hit a high of 34 last week, but now it has once again fallen to just above extreme fear territory.

The “fear and greed” index is an indicator that measures the general sentiment among investors in the Bitcoin market.

The metric uses a numeric scale that runs from zero to hundred for representing this sentiment. All values above fifty imply greed, while those below the threshold suggest fear.

Values towards the end of the range of above 75 and below 25 signify sentiments of “extreme greed” and “extreme fear,” respectively.

Historically, tops have tended to form during extreme greed, while bottoms have taken place during the periods with the latter sentiment.

Because of this fact, some traders believe it’s best to sell while the market is extremely greedy and buy when investors are extremely fearful.

“Contrarian investing” is a trading technique that echoes this idea. The famous Warren Buffet quote sums it up: “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin fear and greed index over the past year:

The value of the indicator seems to have surged up during recent weeks | Source: Arcane Research's The Weekly Update - Week 29, 2022

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin fear and greed has observed some growth recently and is currently at a value of 26, suggesting a fearful sentiment is gripping the market currently.

Preceding this latest improvement in the mentality was a long stretch of extreme fear, the longest in the history of the crypto, in fact. It lasted for 74 days.

Last week, the indicator’s value had risen up to even 34 as the coin’s price saw a recovery rally. However, as the run ended and the crypto once again slumped down, so did the sentiment among the investors.

The report notes that this trend indicates participants in the BTC (and wider crypto) market believe that this recent rally was just a fakeout.

Overall, the sentiment is certainly an improvement over the extreme fear hell of June, but the buyers still remain reluctant.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $21.3k, down 10% in the last week. Over the past month, the crypto has gained 2% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

Looks like the value of the crypto has gone down over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Arcane Research

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Cardano Moves In The Red With The Market, Can The Price Of ADA Stay Above $0.46?

Cardano trends to the downside with the crypto market recording small profits on lower timeframes. The cryptocurrency continues to move in tandem with Bitcoin and Ethereum and seems poised for some volatility over today’s trading session.

Related Reading | Dogecoin Seen Doubling In Price, Despite Shedding 10% In Last 7 Days

At the time of writing, Cardano (ADA) trades at $0.46 with a 2% profit in the past 24 hours and a 9% loss over the past week. ADA’s price has given out almost of the gains it recorded during the crypto market relief and stands as the worst performing asset in the crypto top 10 by market cap.

ADA’s price with minor profit on low timeframes. Source: ADAUSDT Tradingview

Only Solana (SOL) records the worst performance with an 18% loss over the same period. Cardano is negatively reacting to the uncertainty across the crypto market increased by today’s U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Federal Open Committee (FOMC) meeting.

During this event, the financial institution is set to announce its interest rate hike. The market expects a 75 basis points (bps) increase.

If there are no surprises, the crypto market could see a potential rally into previous levels with a spike in volatility.

Cardano And Crypto Market See Spike In Short Positions

As mentioned, the uncertainty around the crypto market could translate into the volatile price action, with no clear direction for the short term.

A pseudonym trader said the following on the effect of the FOMC meeting in the sector:

Leading into the FOMC, there is a huge increase of Open Interest (total dollar amount of open positions in the futures markt). This comes together with negative funding rates, which means traders are shorting (…).

The increase in short positions is attributed to speculators betting on a negative reaction to the FOMC. In that sense, the pseudonym trader bets on no clear direction after this event.

However, as NewsBTC reported earlier, trading desk QCP Capital has recorded a relief rally over the past month each time there is an FOMC event. This time should be no different with a decline in inflation expectations and a slowdown in economic growth metrics.

In short timeframes, retail investors are buying into ADA’s current price action. As seen below, these investors have been buying ADA since May at an increasing rate.

Related Reading | Ripple (XRP) Is Up 190% From Cycle Low, But Will It Ever Reach $3?

The market tends to move in the opposite direction than retail investors, but this time macro-economic conditions might be stronger and exercise a bigger influence on the price of Cardano.

Retail investors (yellow on the chart) buying into ADA’s price. Source: Material Indicators

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Dogecoin Seen Doubling In Price, Despite Shedding 10% In Last 7 Days

After everything is trading in red in the crypto space, Dogecoin price made a refreshing spike and may even more than double in price by the end of 2022, according to analysts’ long-term price forecast.

Being the original and top meme token, Dogecoin is killing it in the crypto game. DOGE has seen a slight gain of 0.5% as seen in the past 24 hours.

As of press time, DOGE is currently trading at $6.2. Dogecoin is currently the world’s 10th largest crypto in terms of market cap. It has a market capitalization of $8.3 billion which has declined by 2% from its all-time high of $73.8 on May 8, 2021.

DOGE Seen To Wrap Up 2022 At $0.16

Forecast by 15 FinTech analysts revealed that DOGE price is said to grow twofold and could end 2022 at $0.16 which is a 158% jump compared to the meme coin’s current value. In comparison, DOGE ended 2021 at $0.17.

Fred Schebesta, founder of Finder, maintains a bullish perspective for DOGE price. He forecasts that the meme coin will end 2022 trading at a range of $0.25 to $0.30.

DOGE for Schebesta is unassailable and should never be undermined being the original meme coin.

Suggested Reading | Cardano (ADA), After 35% Spike, Locks On Next Target: $0.55

 According to Schebesta:

“This shouldn’t be underestimated in the world of cryptocurrency where breaking traditional methods for identifying value is a cherished pastime. Investors can likely sit tight knowing that while there will be more, and others will come and go, Doge will forever be the original.”

On the other hand, John Hawkins, University of Canberra Senior Lecturer, is bearish with its forecast of DOGE. He says that Dogecoin is bound to end the year trading at $0.05 or down by 20%.

Hawkins believes that while DOGE is the original meme coin, its price is directly impacted by the controversial tweets of Elon Musk. While it can hoist the coin further up, it’s influence of DOGE price seem to dissipate over time.

DOGE total market cap at $8.3 billion on the daily chart | Source: TradingView.com DOGE To End 2030 At $0.54

CoinMarketCap data reveals that DOGE currently trades at $0.06104, which is 93.896% below the support line. Additionally, DOGE has also shaved off around 5.91% today as well as dropped by 9.80% over the past week.

The meme coin’s current market cap is a miserable number compared to its all-time high of $85 billion seen on May 5, 2021.

At the beginning of the year, many analysts were extremely bullish and believe that DOGE price will hover to $0.92 or close to $1 by the end of 2030 but to date, the predictions have now moved at $0.54.

Suggested Reading | Solana (SOL) To Hit $166 By 2025, Despite Current Bearish Conditions

Featured image from Finance Magnates, chart from TradingView.com

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Ripple (XRP) Is Up 190% From Cycle Low, But Will It Ever Reach $3?

Ripple has remained a prominent name in the crypto market despite its woes in recent years. The digital asset was expected to crash as its case with the SEC raged on, but it has managed to maintain its hold on the market while building an effective community around itself. Nevertheless, the digital asset remains one of the few that didn’t hit its previous all-time high during the last bull run, sparking speculations of if it will ever return there.

FUD Derails Ripple’s Growth

During the 2017 bull run, Ripple (XRP) made a splash in the market by going on an incredible bull rally. The cryptocurrency was able to break above $3 and cement its position as one of the largest cryptocurrencies in the space. This saw more investors rally behind the token and pitch their tent there.

Related Reading | More Than 57,000 Traders Liquidated As Bitcoin Declines Below $22,000

At the height of the rally, the cryptocurrency had touched as high as $3.30 in January 2018 before declining along with the rest of the market as the bear trend began. However, XRP’s decline would transcend just the bear market, given that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would take a keen interest in it. It led to the most prominent lawsuit in the crypto space, which is still ongoing at the time of this writing.

XRP trading at $0.33 | Source: XRPUSD on TradingView.com

The FUD that followed the lawsuit expressly delayed the growth of the digital asset since then. Even when cryptocurrencies were touching new all-time highs in the market, XRP was unable to do so, remaining firmly under its previous cycle peak.

Will XRP Retake $3?

With Ripple unable to reach its previous all-time high of $3.3 during the last bull market, it is unlikely that it will do so presently with the bear trend. However, it doesn’t completely eliminate the possibility of reaching this point once more. 

Related Reading | Crypto Market Shaves Off $50 Billion In One Day As Reversal Begins

A key component to look at is how cryptocurrencies tend to grow quickly in bull markets. At the current price, Ripple (XRP) will need to do a 10x to reclaim its previous high in 2018. An entirely possible scenario for a top 10 digital asset. But one thing is important in this quest to reach this point, and that is the fact that Ripple wins its case with the SEC.

CEO Brad Garlinghouse has actually expressed confidence that Ripple will be triumphant over the SEC. If this turns out to be the case, a massive rally is likely to break out off the news of the victory alone while propelling the digital asset’s price further since it is no longer being weighed down by the SEC’s probe.

Featured image from Investopedia, chart from TradingView.com

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Selasa, 26 Juli 2022

Bitcoin Dominance Grows As Crypto Risk Appetite Remains Low

The crypto market has been moving in the red during today’s trading session with Bitcoin and Ethereum surrendering the past week’s gains. The first cryptocurrency by market capitalization seems to be reacting to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOME) meeting set for tomorrow.

During this event, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to potentially announce an increase in interest rates. Projection aimed at a 75 basis points (bps) hike, but the financial institution might surprise the market with a 100 bps in an attempt to cut down inflation.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a metric used to measure inflation in the U.S. dollar, stands at a 40-year-old high. This has forced the Fed to shift its monetary policy by hiking interest rates, reducing its balance sheet, and removing liquidity from global markets.

As a consequence, Bitcoin and the crypto market have been trending to the downside. The benchmark crypto saw a period of relative stability when it was able to stabilize at around $20,000, BTC’s price current level.

The altcoins sector was less fortunate as Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL), and other major cryptocurrencies broke below critical resistance. Some altcoins return to their 2020 levels as Bitcoin dominance trended to the upside.

This is an indication of uncertainty and risk-off sentiment in the crypto market. The metric saw a decline over the past two weeks on the back of expectations of mitigating inflation, supported by a drop in the price of commodities, and the announcement of a date for the Ethereum “Merge”.

Data from Arcane Research supports the above as the research firm records a decrease in performance for their Large, Mid, and Small Cap Index. As seen below, these indexes have been recording heavier losses than Bitcoin as BTC Dominance picks up bullish momentum.

Source: Arcane Research Bitcoin Dominance Spike Hints At Crypto Market Uncertainty

Arcane Research noted that the overall weakness in the sector is driven by a “natural rotation as traders seek safety in a falling market”. The increase in Bitcoin dominance has been accompanied by a rise in stablecoin total market share.

In other words, market participants are buying Bitcoin and stablecoins to protect them from potential downside risks. The report stated:

Ether’s lack of strength relative to bitcoin has caused its market dominance to fall 0.34% over the last week. On the other hand, Bitcoin has seen its market share increase by 0.47%. This is a natural rotation as market fall, given that investors perceive bitcoin as a lower-risk asset than ether.

Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting will decide the short-term fate of BTC dominance and the fate of larger cryptocurrencies.

BTC’s price moves sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSDT Tradingview

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Bitcoin Bounces Off Historic “Mayer Multiple” Bottom Zone

Data shows the price of Bitcoin has broken above the 0.55 Mayer Multiple level, below which the crypto has historically formed bottoms.

Bitcoin Has Now Left The Zone Below 0.55 Mayer Multiple

As per the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the BTC price has escaped above the Mayer Multiple bottom zone.

The “Mayer Multiple” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the current Bitcoin price and the 200-day moving average of the same.

A “moving average” (or MA in brief) is an analytical tool that takes the average of any quantity over a specified period, and as its name implies, it moves with the quantity and changes its value accordingly.

MAs are quite useful in studying long-term trends as they eliminate any short-term fluctuations and smooth out the curve.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Puell Multiple Lifts Off From Buy Zone, Bull Momentum To Follow?

The Mayer Multiple basically tells us how the latest value of the crypto has deviated from the average during the past 200 days. Based on this, it becomes possible to say whether the coin is currently overbought or oversold.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin “Mayer Multiple = 0.55” line during the last several years:

Looks like the price of the coin has crossed above the level recently | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 30, 2022

As you can see in the above graph, the the price of Bitcoin was under a Mayer Multiple value of 0.55 until very recently.

At this value of the indicator, the BTC price is trading 45% lower than the 200-day average. Historically, cyclical bottoms in the crypto’s price have formed under this level.

Related Reading | On-Chain Data: Bitcoin Whales With 10k+ BTC Have Been Growing

This zone with Mayer Multiple values less than 0.55 has been rarely observed, with the crypto closing under it on a total of 127 days out of the 4186 days of trading life for the coin. This means that BTC has only spent 3% of its history in this region.

Currently, it seems like Bitcoin is now shooting above the level after spending some time below it recently. If the past is anything to go by, this could mean that a bottom is now in for the crypto as the worst of the bear market may be over.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $20.9k, down 5% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 2% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

The value of the crypto seems to have been going down over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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