Bitcoin Above 100 SMA Could Start Fresh Rally Towards $12,500

Bitcoin is recovering and it recently broke the $11,500 resistance area against the US Dollar. BTC must climb above the 100 SMA (H4) to continue higher in the near term.

• Bitcoin is slowly recovering and it surpassed the key $11,500 and $11,550 resistance levels.
• The price is now facing another hurdle near the 100 simple moving average (4-hours) and $11,800.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $11,450 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair is likely to accelerate higher above $12,000 once it clears the 100 simple moving average (4-hours).

Bitcoin is Gaining Traction

After forming a double bottom near $11,140, bitcoin started a strong recovery wave against the US Dollar. BTC broke the $11,400 and $11,500 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

It even surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $12,479 high to $11,129 low. More importantly, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $11,450 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin is now trading nicely above the $11,500 and $11,550 resistance levels. It also helped Ethereum and ripple in climbing above $400 and $0.2750 respectively.

Bitcoin price breaks $11,500. Source: TradingView.com

An immediate resistance for the bulls is now seen near the $11,700 level or the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). The next major resistance is near the $11,800 level (the last key breakdown zone). It is also close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $12,479 high to $11,129 low.

Therefore, a clear break above the $11,700 and $11,800 resistance levels could start a larger upward move. In the mentioned case, the price might continue to rise towards the $12,000 and $12,200 levels. The next major hurdle for the bulls is near the $12,500 level.

Dips Likely Supported in BTC

If bitcoin struggles to climb above the 100 SMA or the $11800 resistance, there could be a downside correction. An initial support on the downside is near the $11,500 level.

The first major support is near the $11,400 level, below which the bears are likely to aim a retest the main $11,100 support region in the near term.

Technical indicators

4 hours MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is slowly moving into the bullish zone.

4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now well below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $11,400

Major Resistance Level – $11,700

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