After a precipitous drop to $6,400 earlier this month, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a strong rebound, trading as high as $7,700 just this past weekend.
While some say this a precursor to a return to the bull market that graced the cryptocurrency industry for the first half of 2019, analysts say it’s too early to be bullish. Here’s why.
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Bitcoin Not Yet Bullish On Macro Scale; Here’s Why
Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has tried its hand at breaking out, reaching the high-$7,000s twice over the past month as bulls have tried to wrest the cryptocurrency industry back into a bull market.
Though, these attempts haven’t worked, with BTC falling short, failing to break the $7,800 to $8,100 resistance on two consecutive occasions due to not enough momentum.
With this in mind, popular cryptocurrency trader Mac recently suggested that with this region becoming an “x2 yearly and monthly resistance,” Bitcoin will need to close above the abovementioned region on a weekly basis before he can say that a “new bull market” has started for BTC.
$7800-$8100 region is set to become a x2 yearly + monthly resistance.
A weekly close above this region and I will officially say a "new" bull market for $BTC has started.
I don't see that happening for a few months.
$5500s waiting.
— Mac
(@MacnBTC) December 27, 2019
It isn’t only Mac who is suggesting that Bitcoin is not yet bullish from a more macro perspective.
Per previous reports from NewsBTC, CryptoThies recently noted that despite the strong recovery from the local lows, his indicator, dubbed MarketGod, is still printing a “sell” signal on the December candle.
He notes that MarketGod has called these macro trends 4/4 in the past six years of Bitcoin price’s history, making the latest “sell” signal rather potent, for it implies that there are months more downside ahead.
Loads of questions in DMs in terms of where I stand on sentiment and current state of the macro trend for #BTC.
Not to be the bearer of bad news, but realistically speaking, I need compelling evidence to overturn MG on a high TF like this, when it’s 4/4 on trend signals. pic.twitter.com/RGOru5cyZw— CryptoThies
(@KingThies) December 24, 2019
Indeed, the last time a “sell” signal was printed by the MarketGod indicator on a monthly timeframe was in the middle of 2018, prior to the 50% capitulation event that took BTC to $3,000 by the end of last year.
That’s not to mention that the one-month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) recently crossed bearish, with the blue (MACD) line crossing below the orange (signal) line.
This bearish crossover was last seen in June/July of 2018, preceding and predicting the abovementioned 50% decline seen at the end of last year.
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