On-Chain Expert Predicts $162K Bitcoin Peak This Cycle

Bitcoin continues to beat expectations this year. Despite most investors speculating the bull market was already over, the digital asset has posted another rally that shows that the market might in fact still be in a bull cycle. The last two weekends have seen bitcoin prices adding at least $4,000 in the span of three days. Breaking what has been a slow and brutal downtrend cycle in the market for the last month.

Now, on-chain expert Willy Woo was on the podcast What Bitcoin Did to talk about the price of bitcoin and give his predictions regarding the price. Woo, for one, does not believe that the digital asset has peaked yet for 2021. Giving incredibly positive predictions for the asset for the rest of the year. With just five months left to go, there is still ample time left for various predictions to play out.

Related Reading | Bitcoin To Reach New All-Time Highs, Market Strategist

Willy Woo’s forecast shows that the expert still believes the bull run is still on, made evident by the recent price movements registered in the market. Digital currencies like bitcoin were showing gains of up to 10% in a day as prices rallied to push the coin value higher.

No Bear Market

Woo said on the podcast that there would be no full-blown bear market following the ending of the current bull cycle. This would mean that the price of bitcoin would most likely keep fluctuating, but probably never get to the points the market had following the last bull market in 2018.

Related Reading | Fast Money’s Brian Kelly Remains Bullish On Bitcoin, Here’s Why

Continuing on, Woo said there would be no repeat of the 2013 cycle imprint. Bitcoin would likely chart new courses, as even now, the digital asset has shown deviating patterns from other bull markets. As it seemed the bull market had drawn close after the May price crash. But the recent recoveries show that indeed, the digital asset is charting new courses going forward.

Following this, Woo believes the digital asset’s price would just wander around with supply and demand. And even halving events that lead to a price increase would have significantly less impact on the value of the asset.

Related Reading | Why Another Wave Up For Altcoins Is Probable According To BTC Dominance

Woo predicted bitcoin peaks would be less dramatic. Since price peaks of the digital asset have almost always been a short run-up, which leads to new all-time highs. Followed by sharp price crashes that usher the beginning of the next bear market. This would mean that bear phases would be shorter also, according to Woo. Lasting for fewer periods of time than previous bears.

Future Bitcoin Price Action

Woo’s price prediction for Bitcoin placed it at $162K. Going as far as saying that a $200,000 price mark is still possible for the digital asset this year. This puts Bitcoin on a tremendous run path to get to such a high prediction.

BTC price continues to trend around $39,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

But with factors like miners getting situated after the China exodus and mining difficulty going back up, the price of the digital asset could very well be on its way to another rally.

Woo also commented on the extended theory cycle for the coin, predicting that the asset will gain even more popularity after the current cycle ends. Commenting more on his price predictions, Woo said, “I have this model. In past cycles, it hit the upper bound before the bull market ended. I have this great situation where I don’t have to be exactly right cause it’s just a moving target. The upper band today is $162K. The current trajectory, $200K.”

Related Reading | 8 Green Candles: Here’s What Happened The Last Time In Bitcoin

Like with every other prediction, only time will tell if Woo’s prediction turns out to be the case. But this provides more insight into the fact that bitcoin maximalists still believe the pioneer cryptocurrency to be wildly undervalued even at its current price.

Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Fundamentals Suggest Cryptocurrency Is Massively Undervalued

Bitcoin price action might not reflect it, but the leading cryptocurrency by market cap could be massively undervalued, according to a variety of fundamental metrics that focus on coin issuance.

These tools are widely known, but when combined paint a clear picture that backs up any chance that the top coin by market cap is actually undervalued at $40,000 per BTC.

Speculative Boom And Bust Cycles And The Impact On Perception Of Value

Any asset – be it stock, currency, commodity, or otherwise – goes through boom and bust cycles; bull and bear markets. These cycles are more rapid and take place more frequently in crypto than they do in traditional market counterparts.

The reason is both due to the always-on 24/7, global crypto market and the speculative nature of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other top coins. Even with adoption taking place, they’re still far from achieving their potential.

Related Reading | Five Bullish Monthly Charts That Suggest Bitcoin Will Blast Off

When speculative assets reach a peak of a bull cycle, they are typically far more overvalued than they should be, which causes such an extreme correction back down toward the “mean.” During bear cycles, speculative assets tend to overcorrect as things appear worse off than they actually are.

Bu this is Bitcoin, and the leading cryptocurrency by market cap might be undervalued even though it recently made a bull market “peak.”

S2F and the Puell Multiple point to an undervalued BTC | Source: BLX on TradingView.com Bitcoin Undervalued According To S2F Model, Puell Multiple

Bitcoin might have collapsed by 50% along with the rest of the crypto market, but it could be significantly undervalued currently due to the overcorrection.

Bitcoin corrected and it was characteristically extreme, but due to the ongoing lack of supply the cryptocurrency is significantly below the normal trajectory through the stock-to-flow model “bands”.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Trend Strength Indicator Suggests Bull Run Isn’t Yet Over

In addition, the Puell Multiple is bouncing from lows, and during this cycle has yet to enter the red zone which is standard of any Bitcoin bull market “top.” The Puell Multiple is calculated “by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value.”

The S2F model is more complex, but both look at how issuance impacts overall supply and the price per BTC. Combined, the two fundamental tools suggest that the bull market isn’t finished, and is entering its final stages. The last leg up in Bitcoin as past cycles have proven, will be dramatic and entirely driven by FOMO and a distinct lack of supply.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or via the TonyTradesBTC Telegram. Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

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Chief Market Strategist Watching Possible W-Bottom Formation In Ethereum

According to a chief market strategist, Ethereum could form a possible w-bottom, an indicator that usually suggests a bull market.

Strategist: Ethereum Might Form A “Higher High”

In a call with MarketWatch, Matt Maley has said that ETH could be moving in a bullish direction if certain conditions are met.

Maley is a chief market strategist at Tabak and Co., and during the call with MarketWatch, the strategist has talked about Bitcoin and Ethereum.

According to Maley, the 200 Daily Moving Average (DMA) is an important level, breaking above which would be bullish for the crypto. At the moment, this value is around $2,141, something ETH has already broken.

Ethereum could then go on to break $2,880, the same value as the high from late May-early June, to form an indicator called the “higher high”. The crypto has already formed “double bottoms” and a minor higher high.

ETH only needs to form a more important higher high now. According to Maley, something like this would be “particularly bullish” for the cryptocurrency.

However, one thing to note is that ETH is somewhat overbought right now, based on the Relative Strength Index, which is an indicator that measures the ratio of the recent losses to recent gains.

Related Reading | TA: Ethereum (ETH) Outpaces Bitcoin, Why Bulls Aim Larger Increase

When ETH is said to be overbought, it means the cryptocurrency is believed to be trading above its fair value. Investors “overbuy” without any investment rationale, and the price goes up. Usually, a phase of overbought is followed by a selling period.

ETH Price

At the time of writing ETH’s price floats around $2.6k, up 12% in the last 7 days. Over the past month, the cryptocurrency has amassed 19% in gains.

Below is a chart that shows the trend in the price of Ethereum over the last 6 months.

ETH continues to enjoy the upwards trend | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView

As the graph shows, the crypto has been on an uptrend since 20 July. On a closer examination of the graph, it becomes apparent that the coin seems to be forming a “W” where the first peak was the earlier mentioned $2,880 point, with the first bottom following soon after in the third part of June.

Related Reading | Ethereum Breaks 200,000 Validators Milestone, Over $14 Billion Now Staked In ETH 2.0

After that, ETH forms a smaller peak early July, and another bottom on the aforementioned 20 July. Now, if ETH continues to follow the uptrend, it will return to the point of the first peak. This is the important “higher high” that’s needed for a bullish trend.

However, it’s unclear whether Ethereum can break that level as the crypto is slightly overbought right now. The price could go down if investors decide to sell before the higher high is made.

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Bitcoin Is More Oversold Than It Was At ATH In April, Says Analyst

Bitcoin has continued to show tremendous gains lately in the market. The weekend saw the price of the digital asset shooting up above $42,000 for the first time in over a month, seeing continuous green daily closes for nine days straight for the first time in ten years.

Following this has been a number of speculations on why this is happening. And more importantly, how this trend is most likely to end. The indicators continue to point towards bullish but with the price fluctuations that bitcoin is notorious for, there is no telling how exactly the current uptrend will end.

Related Reading | 8 Green Candles: Here’s What Happened The Last Time In Bitcoin

Talking on this was Matt Maley, a chief market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., who was on MarketWatch’s call of the day. Maley explained his reasoning behind what he believes was needed for the current gains in the market to stick as prices rally.

Don’t Get Too Excited

Maley started out with some advice for investors, who he tells to gauge the action of the prices during the normal market hours. Alluding to the fact that the recent bitcoin price rallies have been happening during off-market hours, which are weekends, nights, and early mornings. He attributes this advice to the markets being much thinner, with lower volumes, during off-market hours. Thus, it is imperative that the movement of the digital asset be observed during normal trading hours to see how the price moves.

Related Reading | Fast Money’s Brian Kelly Remains Bullish On Bitcoin, Here’s Why

Maley warned to not get too excited about the recent price increases. Waiting to see what the market does continues to be Maley’s advice to clients with regards to the weekend price rallies that have been experienced in the market.

“The markets are much ‘thinner’…and the volumes are much lower…on the weekends,” Maley said. “So we’ll want to see [if] bitcoin can remain above $40k once we get into next week before we get too excited.”

BTC price dips following weekend rally | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Maley continues to want to wait to see how the price holds up this week before anything else. His target is now the 200-daily moving average (DMA), and that stands at $44,600. Opining that the DMA had gotten close to that level since the rise and falls since May, twice. But had rolled over both times before hitting it. “Therefore, it could/should provide some resistance upon any further rally in early August,” said Maley.

Bitcoin Is Oversold

Maley pointed out that the digital asset now looks overbought on the current short-term basis. This is based on the Relative Strength Index of the asset, an oscillating indicator used to track the magnitude of recent losses in relation to recent gains.

Related Reading | Bitcoin To Reach New All-Time Highs, Market Strategist

Talking about bitcoin being oversold, Maley said, “Don’t get us wrong, it got much more overbought before it rolled over in January and February … and in November of last year.” Continuing on, Maley added, “However, it is more overbought than it was at the all-time high in April, so investors and traders alike will have a lot more confidence if this weekend’s move holds into the middle of next week.”

The price of bitcoin has continued to show strong bullish indicators following the recent dip in the price. But if Maley is correct in his analysis and bitcoin is overbought, then the market might continue to see further dips in the price of the digital asset.

Related Reading | Why Another Wave Up For Altcoins Is Probable According To BTC Dominance

This could push the price of bitcoin down past $35,000 as the price finds a comfortable correction point following the rally. As of the time of this writing, bitcoin is currently trending up slowly following the dip in the early hours of Monday, trading at $39,443 according to TradingView.com.

Featured image from CoinDesk, chart from TradingView.com

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TA: Why Ethereum (ETH) Could Continue To Outperform Bitcoin

Ethereum outperformed bitcoin and rallied above the $2,550 resistance against the US Dollar. ETH price tested $2,700 and it is now correcting gains.

• Ethereum rallied towards the $2,700 level before it started a downside correction.
• The price is still trading above $2,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $2,450 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
• The pair is likely to start a fresh increase from $2,500 or $2,450 in the near term.

Ethereum Price is Correcting Gains

Ethereum formed a support base above $2,400 and started a fresh increase, outpacing bitcoin. ETH price gained strength and it broke the main $2,500 and $2,550 resistance levels.

The price even surged above the $2,600 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It opened the doors for more gains and the price traded as high as $2,700 level. It is now correcting gains from the $2,700 resistance zone.

There was a break below the $2,620 and $2,600 support level. A low is formed near $2,508 and the price is now consolidating. Ether is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $2,700 swing high to $2,508 high.

There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near $2,450 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. On the upside, the first key resistance is near the $2,600 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $2,700 swing high to $2,508 high.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The main resistance is now forming near the $2,630 level. A clear break and close above $2,630 might start another steady increase. In the stated case, the price could easily rise towards the $2,700 level. The next key resistance is near the $2,780 level, above which the price might test $2,880 in the near term.

More Gains in ETH?

If ethereum fails to continue higher above $2,600, it could extend its decline. An immediate support on the downside is near the $2,510 level.

The first major support is near the $2,500 and $2,480 levels. The next key support is near the $2,450 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A clear downside break below the $2,450 support zone could lead the price towards the $2,320 support.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is likely to move back into the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now close to the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $2,500

Major Resistance Level – $2,630

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Square’s Cash App Reports $2.7B In Quarterly Bitcoin Revenue, A 200% Jump

Square has had a busy weekend. The company made headlines for it’s purchase of Australia-based fintech firm, Afterpay, in an all-stock deal. Square then went on to release it’s Q2 2021 Shareholder Letter, filled to the brim with company insights – including some strong growth numbers in crypto transactions on Square’s mobile product, Cash App.

Breaking Down The Numbers

Square’s gross profit in Q2 was a healthy $546M, reflecting a 91% increase year-over-year. Bitcoin gross profit on Cash App specifically accounted for roughly 10% that, coming in at around $55M; this reflected a substantial increase from the $17M in bitcoin gross revenues that the company saw in Q2 last year.

Bitcoin yearly revenue saw exceptional jumps as well, rising over 200% to ring in $2.72B. This time last year that number was at $875M. While some may call out the relatively thin margin of gross profit relative to revenues, Square maintains that driving company profits from bitcoin transactions are clearly low-priority. Bitcoin gross profits reflected only roughly 2% of bitcoin revenues for Cash App in Q2.

In fact, the company explicitly calls out net revenues exclusive of bitcoin transactions. According to the shareholder report, Square deducts bitcoin revenue because their “role is to facilitate customers’ access to bitcoin.” The company is seemingly playing the “long game” with crypto, encouraging accessibility and minimizing fees.

Square has seen substantial growth and with new acquisitions, looks primed for future fintech disruption. | Source: NYSE: SQ on TradingView.com

Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin Corrects Gains, Why BTC Must Could Extend Losses

It’s Not All Green Days

Despite substantial growth from the reported numbers year-over-year, bitcoin’s price has seen declines relative to the first quarter of the year. As such, both bitcoin revenue and gross profit from bitcoin for Cash App saw declines relative to Q1 2021 – as Cash App only charges a small margin on the market cost of bitcoin.

Accordingly, the letter notes that bitcoin price volatility in the quarters ahead, along with changes in customer demand, will likely continue to impact Cash App profits and revenues from crypto.

Additionally, Square has purchased $220M worth of bitcoin between Q4 2020 and Q1 2021. Because bitcoin is considered an “indefinite-lived intangible asset”, the company recognized a $45M impairment loss on the quarter on the firm’s bitcoin investment.

In all, Cash App’s continued success beyond bitcoin will likely bode well for the company’s crypto engagement, too. Cash App revenue excluding bitcoin in Q2 came in at around $600M – an increase of 87% year-over-year. Square’s broader Q2 numbers showed strong growth as well, with the quarter being the second-best in the past 5 quarters with regards to net income.

There is clearly more growth on the horizon when it comes to Jack Dorsey-led Square.

Related Reading | Bear Market Over? Why Bitcoin Could Soar TO $45K As Strong Holders Grow

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TA: Bitcoin Corrects Gains, Why BTC Must Could Extend Losses

Bitcoin price started a downside correction from the $42,600 zone against the US Dollar. BTC is now trading below $40,000 and it might extend losses towards $38,500.

• Bitcoin started a downside correction below the $41,200 and $40,000 support levels.
• The price is now trading below $40,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $40,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair is likely to continue lower towards the $38,500 support zone in the near term.

Bitcoin Price Back Below $40K

Bitcoin price extended its increase above the $42,000 resistance level. BTC even climbed above the $42,500 resistance level and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

However, the price struggled above the $42,600 level. A high was formed near $42,629 before the price started a downside correction. There was a break below the $41,200 and $40,500 support levels. It even broke the $40,000 support level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

A low is formed near $39,281 and the price is now consolidating. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $40,000 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $42,629 swing high to $39,281 low.

The first major resistance is near the $40,500 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $40,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $42,629 swing high to $39,281 low. If there is an upside break above the trend line, bitcoin could rise towards $41,200. The next major resistance on the upside is near the $42,000 zone.

More Losses in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to climb above the $40,000 and $40,500 resistance levels, it could continue to move down. An initial support on the downside is near the $39,200 level.

The first major support is now near the $38,500 zone. A clear downside break below the $38,500 support might call for more losses. The next major support is near the $37,000 zone.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now well below the 30 level.

Major Support Levels – $38,500, followed by $37,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $40,000, $40,500 and $42,000.

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