VeChain At Risk Of Further Losses? VET Price Drops 30% In Downtrend

The crypto market continues on its downtrend, and VeChain (VET) follows after expiring some relief over the last weekend. The cryptocurrency recently breached a major level of support and seems poised to expand its downside price action.

Related Reading | Fed Announces Inflation Warnings As Bitcoin Whales Remain In Wait Mode

At the time of writing, VET’s price trades at $0.022 with a 3% and 32% loss over the last 24 hours and the past month respectively.

VET’s price trends to the downside on the 4-hour chart. Source: VETUSDT Tradingview

According to crypto analyst Justin Bennett, VeChain lost a major area of support when it broke below $0.024. As seen below, this area was the last line of resistance for a “neckline” or a trendline that saw VET’s price after an increase in previous selling pressure.

Not everything is lost for the bulls, the analyst believes, as long as VeChain is capable of holding above $0.021. This area is a “much more significant support for the market”.

In case of further downside action, VET’s price could drop into this support line before seeing some relief. If the price manages to get back above the neckline, it could support a bullish continuation.

However, traders should wait for confirmation if VET’s price can return to $0.024 and then to $0.026. Beyond that point, $0.028 seems like a very important area of resistance.

Bennett believes it seems more possible that VeChain will continue on its downtrend:

Resistance for VET is around $0.0237, which is the neckline it broke below yesterday. All in all, the market looks relatively weak. So even if we do see some additional relief, I think a move to at least $0.016 makes the most sense right now.

Traders should watch out for a daily close below current levels or $0.022. This could hint at potential losses targeting the levels mentioned by the analyst.

VET’s price breaks below the neckline of support on the 4-hour chart. Source: Justin Bennett What Could Save VeChain In The Long Run?

As NewsBTC reported, VeChain is currently in the process of deploying a major consensus update. This could facilitate the corporate adoption of the blockchain VeChainThor and inject fresh capital into the ecosystem. However, this will positively impact VET’s price over the long run.

In the short term, Bennett claims the current macro conditions don’t support bullish momentum in the crypto market. The analyst recently pointed out a “Head and Shoulders” pattern formed on the crypto market total capitalization 4-hour chart.

Related Reading | Ethereum Rising Gas Fees are Still Concerning But Presents Opportunity For Decentralized Exchanges

This pattern often precedes further losses by a certain asset. The total crypto market cap currently stands above $800 billion and could crash into the $700 billion if the pattern plays out. Any long positions, at current levels, seem at risk, as Bennett explained:

$TOTAL is a perfect example of how to use a failed head and shoulders to your advantage. That failure offered a short opportunity. I never thought to long this because of the established downtrend. I was always expecting it to fail.

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Why Rich Dad, Poor Dad Author Will Wait For Bitcoin To Drop To $1,100 Before Buying More

Best-selling author Robert Kiyosaki offered his followers a “Rich dad lesson” on Bitcoin. Via his official Twitter account, the writer made a distinction between “winners” and “losers” in the crypto market.

Related Reading | Reports: FTX Targeting BlockFi Purchase At $25M

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has lost major support as it broke below $20,000 and it’s currently trading at $18,900 with a 6% loss in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has lost over 75% of its value since reaching an all-time high at $69,000.

BTC’s price trends to the downside on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

At those levels, the Rich Dad Poor Dad author was a buyer and seemed more enthusiastic about BTC’s price future appreciation. Now, he has made a 180 degrees shift in his speech publicly bashing those investors which he classified as “losers”.

Kiyosaki’s full message is rather grim, and might be aiming for an impossible level, for Bitcoin to crash all the way down to $1,100:

RICH Dad lesson. “LOSERS quit when they lose.”  Bitcoin losers are quitting some committing suicide.’WINNERs learn from their losses. I am waiting for Bitcoin to “test” $1100. If it recovers I will buy more. If it does not I will wait for losers to “capitulate” quit then buy more.

In the past, Kiyosaki highlighted $20,000 as the “buy the dip” level. The author called the cryptocurrency a hedge against inflation and called the BTC’s price crashing “good news” and predicted a “time to get richer” by increasing his holdings.

The author was bullish on BTC and precious metals, but it’s unclear what has caused him to shift his views. On a different occasion, Kiyosaki foresaw the start of a depression, preceded by a “giant crash” across global markets.

The main trigger for this scenario is the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and its attempts to slow down inflation, which is currently at a 40-year high. At that time, Kiyosaki said:

BIDEEN & FED need inflation to prevent New Depression. Inflation rips off the poor. Inflation makes rich richer. Biden and Fed corrupt. Prepare: Giant crash then new depression. Be smart Buy, gold, silver Bitcoin.

Should You Listen To Robert Kiyosaki?

Kiyosaki was almost right when he predicted Bitcoin would reach an all-time high near $75,000. However, as crypto users pointed out, he has been mostly wrong about his BTC’s price prediction.

As seen below, Kiyosaki has been talking about this doomsday scenario for over a decade. In 2017, he tweeted about a potential crash in the real estate market, this prediction proceeded a major bull run in the sector.

Kiyosaki’s market predictions across the past decade compared to the S&P 500. Source: Fintwit via Twitter

Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin is Plunging, But It’s Too Early to Say Bulls Have Given Up

Therefore, it seems wise to take his words with a grain of salt. The crypto market seems soft and susceptible to macro-conditions, but for BTC to return to the $1,000 levels seems unlikely.

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Reports: FTX Targeting BlockFi Purchase At $25M

BlockFi, Celsius, Nexo, and more: tough times can lead to difficult measures, and this year’s bear market is showing no exception to some of these players. Look no further than the current state of affairs for centralized finance (CeFi) platforms, who have been facing substantial headwinds with no end in sight.

Now, after days of rumors and reported exploratory deals, reports have emerged that powerhouse crypto exchange FTX is putting together the final ties around an acquisition deal of BlockFi at just a $25M valuation. The news comes after reports emerged that FTX passed on an acquisition deal for Celsius after seeing the CeFi firm’s balance sheet.

BlockFi On The Block

Should the purchase come to fruition at the reported valuation, it’ll be a major hit for BlockFi equity holders, following a nearly $5B valuation last year in the midst of bull market movement. However, that $25M number could move drastically between today’s reports and closing time – and a successful acquisition will of course take months to close. BlockFi CEO Zac Prince described the number as “market rumors” and outright denied the number, stating in a tweet that “we aren’t being sold for $25M.”

FTX is on the shortlist of exchanges that have sought out opportunity in the midst of crypto market downturn, exploring buyouts or equity share purchases for both Celsius and BlockFi in recent weeks, according to a variety of reports. However, based on the hard facts available to the public, the viability and likelihood of a buyout for BlockFi is still difficult to measure.

Celsius (CEL) has faced an uphill battle as the platform has still paused withdrawals for customers. | Source: CEL-USD on TradingView.com

Related Reading | Ethereum Loses Steam As Exchange Supply Spikes

State Of CeFi: Pulse Check

How did we get here? Bear market downturn over the past month or two has caused major pain for CeFi platforms, in a flurry of madness that started with Celsius freezing withdrawals earlier this month amid worries of a bank run and lack of immediate liquidity within the platform’s holdings. BlockFi has undoubtedly faced the heat, too, as FTX provided the firm with a $250M emergency line of credit just last week. While reports across the market suggest that BlockFi has several options on the table, it seems that few will lead down a path that spares equity shareholders of value at present time. Nexo has largely stayed quiet during the chaos, but there’s various internet sleuths who have targeted Nexo with content campaigns around the company’s practices as well.

Regardless of how you feel about CeFi, the decline of infrastructure in this bear market shouldn’t be celebrated – we’ll see how it all shakes out when the tides recover.

Related Reading | USDC Exchange Reserves Rise As Investors Escape From Bitcoin

Featured image from Pixabay, Charts from TradingView.com The writer of this content is not associated or affiliated with any of the parties mentioned in this article. This is not financial advice.

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Stratis (STRAX) Soars 200% From June Low On Sky Dream Mall Launch

After the news of the launch of the Sky Dream Mall metaverse and Stratis GBP stablecoin, the price of STRAX increased by 200% from its low of $0.365 on June 15 to its high of $1.20 on June 29, according to data from coinmarketcap. The price dropped the next day and is currently trading at $1.09, although it is still up from its low.

The record high for STRAX was $22.77 on January 8, 2018, more than four years ago. However, the coin’s record low was $0.011 on August 12, 2016, approximately six years ago.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Slides Under $20K – Another Collapse In The Offing?

In spite of the overall market downturn, per the CoinGecko information, Stratis, a blockchain-as-a-service platform, witnessed a notable gain in volume. And among STRAX, Numeraire (NMR) is another coin that shows a notable gain of 201.1% in the seven-day chart. NMR is an Ethereum token that fuels Numerai (a San Francisco-based hedge fund). 

Since Stratis has a comparatively strong growth momentum and increased by more than 140.9% over seven days, it is defying expectations in the current bear market. The term “bear market” so refers to a market where commodities or securities’ values are consistently decreasing.

Reasons Behind STRAX Price Spike This Week

Currently, two of the factors are driving the increase in STRAX’s price this week. The first is the Stratis GBP stablecoin announcement, and the second is the Sky Dream Mall metaverse launch.

STRAX is currently trading at $1.05 on the daily chart | Source: STRAX /USD chart from Tradingview.com

In a blog post published three days ago, Stratis said that it is making progress in its attempts to introduce the Stratis GBP stablecoin:

Plans to launch a Great British Pound Token (GBPT) stable coin using Stratis technology are progressing with ‘Stratis Investment Group Limited,’ a new entity created that will be used for the Stratis GBP stablecoin.

However, Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC), according to the company, is assisting it in obtaining the necessary licenses from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

The post also stated that blockchain technology offers a significant chance to streamline cross-border and wholesale payments as organizations like Visa are becoming more open to accepting stable coin payments.

Polycarbon Games announced on Twitter on June 25:

Sky Dream Mall, a metaverse powered by Stratis Blockchain Coming soon! 

The idea of Stratis launching the metaverse front could also be a major motivator behind widespread acceptance in the cryptocurrency industry.

Related Reading | Mining Operators Fret As Bitcoin Looses Ground, What Lies Ahead For The Mining Community

While a few individuals concentrate on the benefit this metaverse will offer, a far more significant number is intrigued by the possibility of financial gain from a metaverse investment.

Investors cannot ignore the fact that Stratis is establishing itself with Sky Dream Mall as a major player who will be important in the developing Web3.0 world.

 

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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USDC Exchange Reserves Rise As Investors Escape From Bitcoin

On-chain data shows the USD Coin exchange reserves have gone up recently, suggesting that investors may be exiting volatile markets like Bitcoin.

USD Coin All Exchanges Reserve Has Been Climbing Up Recently

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, there have been signs of selling from Bitcoin investors for moving into USDC.

The USD Coin “all exchanges reserve” is an indicator that measures the total amount of the stablecoin currently present in wallets of all exchanges.

When the value of this metric goes up, it means investors are either depositing their USDC to exchanges right now, or shifting to the stablecoin from other cryptos.

Investors usually move into stablecoins like USD Coin when they want to escape from the volatility associated with cryptos like Bitcoin.

On the other hand, when the value of the reserve heads down, it implies the amount of USDC on exchanges is decreasing at the moment.

Related Reading | Extreme Fear Remains: Recapping What’s Behind The Crypto Market Panic

This kind of trend may be because of investors feeling now is an ideal point for jumping into volatile markets, or it may simply be due to holders withdrawing to personal wallets.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the USDC all exchanges reserve over the last few months:

Looks like the value of the indicator has been going up in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

As you can see in the above graph, the USD Coin all exchanges reserve has observed some uptrend in the last week.

The chart also shows the trend for USDC inflow to exchanges, which is another metric that measures the total amount of the stablecoin moving into centralized exchanges.

It seems like the inflows haven’t been abnormally high recently, but the reserve has still been experiencing upwards movement.

Related Reading | Mining Operators Fret As Bitcoin Looses Ground, What Lies Ahead For The Mining Community

This could mean that the increase in the reserve isn’t just due to investors depositing their USDC, but also from them exchanging cryptos like Bitcoin for the stablecoin.

The trend may suggest that investors are leaving volatile markets for now, due to the current uncertain market conditions. This recent selling can prove to be bearish for the values of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $19.1k, down 7% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 35% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.

The value of the crypto seems to have declined over the last couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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TA: Ethereum Key Indicators Suggest A Sharp Drop Below $1K

Ethereum declined below the $1,120 support against the US Dollar. ETH is now at a risk of more losses if it stays below the key $1,150 resistance.

• Ethereum remained in a bearish zone below $1,200 and $1,150 levels.
• The price is now trading below $1,150 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,100 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
• The pair could decline further if there is a clear move below the $1,050 support zone.

Ethereum Price Turns Red

Ethereum remained in a bearish zone and extended losses below the $1,150 support zone. ETH failed to stay above the $1,120 support zone and moved further into a bearish zone.

The price even settled below the $1,000 support zone and tested the $1,075 zone. A low is formed near $1,076 and the price is now consolidating losses. It is trading well below $1,150 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,100 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,100 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The trend line is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,235 swing high to $1,076 low.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The next major resistance is near the $1,150 zone. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,235 swing high to $1,076 low is also near $1,150. A close above the $1,150 resistance zone could start a steady increase. In the stated case, the price could clear the $1,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price towards the $1,235 high.

More Losses in ETH?

If ethereum fails to rise above the $1,150 resistance, it could continue to move down. An initial support on the downside is near the $1,075 zone.

The next major support is near the $1,050 zone. A close below the $1,050 level might push ether price further lower. In the stated case, ether price may perhaps decline towards the $1,000 level.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is now gaining momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now well below the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,050

Major Resistance Level – $1,150

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TA: Bitcoin is Plunging, But It’s Too Early to Say Bulls Have Given Up

Bitcoin is struggling below the $20,000 zone against the US Dollar. BTC remains at a risk of more losses if the bulls fail to protect the $19,800 support zone.

• Bitcoin is showing bearish signs below the $21,000 and $20,500 levels.
• The price is now trading below the $20,400 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $20,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair could decline further if there is a clear move below the $19,800 zone.

Bitcoin Price Remains At Risk

Bitcoin price failed to recover above the $21,000 pivot level. The price remained in a bearish zone and extended its decline below the $20,500 support zone.

There was also a close below the $20,250 level. BTC spiked below the $20,000 level, but the bulls were active near $19,800 level. A low is formed near $19,828 and the price is now consolidating losses. It is now trading below the $20,400 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $20,150 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $21,188 swing high to $19,828 low.

The next key resistance is near the $20,400 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $20,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The trend line is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $21,188 swing high to $19,828 low.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

A clear move above the trend line resistance and then $20,500 could start a recovery wave. In the stated case, the price could rise towards the $20,900 level. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near the $21,200 zone, above which the price may perhaps rise towards the $21,800 level.

More Losses in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to clear the $20,500 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. An immediate support on the downside is near the $20,000 level.

The main support now sits near the $19,800 level, below which the price could accelerate lower. The next major support sits near the $18,800 zone. Any more losses could send the price towards the $18,000 level.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $20,000, followed by $19,800.

Major Resistance Levels – $20,150, $20,400 and $20,500.

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Ethereum Keeps Sliding Down, Will The Support Line of $1,100 Break?

Ethereum continued on a bearish path as the coin has now found support level at $1,100. Over the last two days the coin surged and touched the $1,200 mark but shortly after that, it witnessed a pullback on the chart. Ethereum’s strong resistance currently stood at $1,300.

The technical perspective of the coin has also remained bearish. Over the last 24 hours, ETH lost 9% of its value and invalidated most gains it secured in the past one week. After the bulls could not manage to move past the $1,300 price ceiling, the coin has slipped down.

ETH has depicted a consolidated price range with price of the asset sandwiched between $1,280 and $1,110, respectively. If Ethereum doesn’t rise and break past the $1,300, price could dip and fall below the $1,000 mark. Buying strength also faded as price of the coin kept falling on the chart. The global cryptocurrency market cap today is at $937 Billion with a fall of 5.5% in the last 24 hours.

Ethereum Price Analysis: One Day Chart Ethereum was priced at $1,111 on the one day chart | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView

ETH was trading for $1,111 at the time of writing. Immediate support for the coin stood at $1,000, but if ETH starts to fall then the coin can trade at the $900 price level. Immediate overhead resistance stood at $1,200 and then at $1,300.

The last time the altcoin hovered around this price region was in the month of January 2021. If Ethereum falls to $900, it would mark a new low for the coin in the year 2022. If price of the altcoin manages to jump to $1,300 and trades above that level for significantly long, then rally to $1,700 could be possible.

Volume of Ethereum traded fell on the 24 hour chart which meant that buying strength decreased. The trading volume bar was red indicating bearishness.

Technical Analysis Ethereum displayed fall in buying pressure on the one day chart | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView

ETH was oversold over the last 48 hours, but the coin recovered and moved above the oversold zone. Despite this recovery Ethereum’s buying pressure remained extremely low on the chart. The Relative Strength Index noted a downtick and was nearing the oversold mark again.

Consistent downfall in demand can bring Ethereum to touch the $900 level over the next trading sessions. On the 20-SMA, the coin was seen below the 20-SMA line. A reading below the 20-SMA line means that the sellers were driving the price momentum in the market.

Related Reading | Why Ethereum Could Trade At $500 If These Conditions Are Met

Ethereum flashed buy signal on the one day chart | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView

ETH noted a fall in buying strength despite that the coin flashed buy signal son the one day chart. Moving Average Convergence Divergence depicts the price momentum. It displayed a bullish crossover and flashed green signal bars which are buy signals for the coin.

The current price level could potentially turn into a demand zone for the king altcoin. Chaikin Money Flow demonstrated capital inflows and outflows on the chart. CMF was below the the half-line which meant that capital inflows were lesser than capital outflows signifying bearishness.

Suggested Reading | Ethereum Needs To Breach This Level To Sustain Bullish Pace

Featured image UnSplash, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Records Worst Performance For June, Will It Get Better From Here?

Bitcoin performance for the month of June has been nothing short of unremarkable so far. Being a market leader, the other cryptocurrencies in the market have mirrored its movements for the month, leading to massive losses across the board. However, the numbers for June are in and it shows that bitcoin’s performance for the month has been worse in comparison to its altcoin counterparts.

Bitcoin Performance Staggers

Performance all across the board has been terrible. So far, all of the indexes have come back with double-digits in losses for the month of June, and that is in addition to the subpar performance the market had seen in the prior month. But instead of the expected small cap altcoins returning the worst of the losses, bitcoin has barreled to the forefront to register more losses than any other index.

Related Reading | Outflows Rock Bitcoin As Institutional Investors Pull The Plug, More Downside Coming?

The pioneer cryptocurrency saw losses touch as high as -35% as the month draws to an end. This has resulted in a decline in the dominance of bitcoin over the broader market after recovering to 48% in early June. BTC dominance is now sitting at 43.69% according to data from TradingView.com.

BTC records wost performance for June | Source: Arcane Research

Mostly the losses have stemmed from the liquidations of large players in the space. The losses recorded in bitcoin can however be attributed to the fact that creditors focus their efforts on more liquid coins like bitcoin. Thus the losses are more pronounced in the digital asset.

Altcoins Suffer In Tandem

Although the altcoins in the space have not recorded as many losses as bitcoin, they have seen high losses too. The large cap index is one that follows bitcoin very closely. Hence, the decline in BTC’s price tends to be more pronounced in these digital assets. It is also due to creditors liquidating these coins first due to their high liquidity. So far, the large cap index is down -33% in the same time period.

BTC drops to low $20,000s | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The mid and small cap indexes have done much better compared to their larger counterparts. Their losses still range into double-digits but creditors have held off on liquidating these cryptocurrencies. This is because they tend to be more illiquid and are therefore pushed to the back burner in favor of larger ones such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The mid and small cap indexes have recorded losses of -24% and -22% for the month of June alone.

Related Reading | Ethereum Fees Touch Monthly Lows As Transaction Volumes Plummet

However, it is not a good prognosis for these small cap altcoins. Given that sell-offs in coins such as bitcoin and Ethereum are nearing an exhaustion point, creditors will turn their attention to smaller altcoins too. And given the fact that they possess less liquidity, liquidations in these digital assets will lead to larger declines in price.

Featured image from Film Daily, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com

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Tracking Whales, What This Bitcoin Divergence Could Hint About BTC’s Price

Bitcoin is trending downside on lower timeframes and seems to hint at future losses. The number one crypto by market cap records a 3% loss in the past week, but there is a potential sign of hope for the bulls.

Related Reading | Why Ethereum Could Trade At $500 If These Conditions Are Met

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $20,000 with a 1% loss in the last 24 hours.

BTC trends to the downside on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

As a pseudonym trader pointed out, Bitcoin whales are currently buying into BTC’s price action and could be hinting at a future relief bounce. The trader used data provided by Material Indicators to show what the different investors’ classes are doing while BTC records losses.

As seen below, investors with bid orders of about $100,000 (purple in the chart below) have increased their buying pressure as almost every other and smaller investor class sells into this price action. This divergence could hint at a bounce as these BTC whales often anticipate or create price trends. The pseudonym trader explained:

Whales (purple) are market buying while #bitcoin price is flat. Historically, purple is the most important class for future price action. Clear divergence, hopefully it will play out this time.

Bitcoin whales (brown in the chart) also saw a small uptick in buying orders as BTC returns to the area of around $20,000. This investor class has been mostly dormant in the current market environment, but their recent involvement highlights the importance of BTC’s current levels.

BTC whales (purple and brown on the chart) buying into the current PA. Source: Material Indicators

In that sense, Material Indicators records massive bid orders for BTC’s price around this area from $19,900 to $20,000. There are over $20 million in bid order on these levels alone with an additional $6 million at around $19,500, and over $10 from $19,000 to $19,000.

In other words, there seems to be enough liquidity for Bitcoin to hold at its current levels for the time being.

BTC’s price with important levels of support (blocks in yellow and red below the price) on lower timeframes. Source: Material Indicators Can Bitcoin The Bitcoin Bulls Score A Green Monthly Candle

At higher timeframes, additional data provided by Material Indicators records an important liquidity zone between $17,000 and $20,000. Large market participants could attempt to push down the price to fill these orders which could hinder the bulls’ attempts to save the monthly candle.

Analysts from Material Indicators wrote:

Bulls are defending the 2017 Top, but with one day to go it’s going to be almost impossible to print a green Monthly candle. Still a chance for green on the Weekly. Expecting volatility. One way or another, Bitcoin is going to breakout or breakdown very soon.

Related Reading | Extreme Fear Remains: Recapping What’s Behind The Crypto Market Panic

The analysts expect a potential relief in the coming days after a potential retest of the yearly lows. Any bullish thesis would be invalidated if BTC loses $17,500.

Trend Precognition is flashing a pretty strong Long signal on the #BTC Weekly chart. Signal won't print until the W candle closes, but indicates that we could see a run at the 200 WMA this week. Happy to test the lows first. For me, sub $17.5k invalidates. #NFA pic.twitter.com/hvs1as44qG

— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) June 28, 2022

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Extreme Fear Remains: Recapping What’s Behind The Crypto Market Panic

The current streak of extreme fear is already the longest ever in crypto history, and it’s continuing on still. Here’s a recap of the major events responsible for this bottom sentiment.

Crypto Fear And Greed Index Continues To Point At “Extreme Fear”

The “fear and greed index” is an indicator that tells us about the general market sentiment among crypto investors.

The metric uses a numeric scale that runs from zero to hundred for representing this sentiment. All values below the fifty mark imply a fearful market, while those above the threshold mean investors are greedy right now.

End values of above 75 and below 25 indicate extreme sentiments of “extreme greed” and “extreme fear,” respectively.

Now, here is a chart from the latest weekly report from Arcane Research, that shows the trend in the crypto fear and greed index over the past year:

Looks like the value of the indicator has been very low in recent weeks | Source: Arcane Research's The Weekly Update - Week 25, 2022

As you can see in the above graph, the current value of the crypto fear and greed index is 10, which suggests the market is extremely fearful at the moment.

This run of extreme fear has been going on since more than two months now, and it’s the longest ever such streak in the history of the metric.

Related Reading | What Is Bitcoin CFD and How Can It Make You a Profit

Even before this latest run of extreme fear, the market sentiment wasn’t particularly well during the rest of 2022. However, it wasn’t still quite as rock bottom as the current streak.

So, what’s behind this historically low sentiment? There are a number of market conditions that have lead to it and that are continuing to keep it so.

The first event of note is the UST collapse in May. A large stablecoin like Tether USD losing its peg put fear and uncertainty into many investors in the market.

Another is the looming macro uncertainties over the market like the possibility of FED hiking rates and the various governments around the world tightening regulations.

Related Reading | Bitcoin “Reserve Risk” Metric Approaches All-Time Lows

These above factors snowballed into a bottom sentiment and lead to larger consequences over the entire crypto market in the form of the crash.

A byproduct of the latest crash was the collapse of Three Arrows Capital (3AC), a cryptocurrency hedge fund. Another was the lender company Celsius halting withdrawals and potentially heading towards bankruptcy.

Such negative news is keeping the fear and greed index from recovering from these historic lows. Like a vicious cycle, bad news is leading to more bad news and further fueling the extreme fear sentiment.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $20k, down 1% in the past week.

BTC plunges down | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Arcane Research

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Holding Back The Bears: Why Bitcoin Must Break $22,500

Bitcoin continues to struggle to hold the $20,000 level even after a recovery coming out of the weekend. This decrease in price has pushed the market further into the bear market. It still trades at very critical levels which will determine the movement for the next couple of weeks. These two main points are the support that formed at $20,000 and the 200-week moving average.

Bitcoin Turning Bearish?

The price of bitcoin at the time of this writing is ranging towards $20,000 with drawdown. Being so dangerously close to this point is critical in the forecast for the price of bitcoin, and this is despite the fact that bulls have already formed support at $20,000.

Related Reading | Outflows Rock Bitcoin As Institutional Investors Pull The Plug, More Downside Coming?

Another critical technical level is the 200-week moving average which the digital asset is currently trading below. Now, this is the first time in history that the price of BTC has ever fallen below the 200-day moving average, registering one of the most bearish trends ever recorded in the market. As such, there is now significant resistance mounting at the 200-week moving average which lies at an average of $22,500.

This makes $22,500 the point to beat if the digital asset has any hopes of reverting to a bull trend. However, resistance is building even below this point. This was seen at $21,500 over the last couple of days as bitcoin had failed to successfully beat this point.

BTC price struggles to hold $20,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Additionally, the digital asset price falling below the 200-week moving average has triggered more sell-offs in the market. These sell-offs are apparent on centralized exchanges such as Coinbase which have recorded large inflows in the last couple of days.

Sentiment Refuses To Budge

The market sentiment surrounding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has been impressively negative in recent times. It has now spent the majority of the month of June in the extreme fear territory as investors refuse to budge on their decisions to not move more funds into the market.

The same sentiment is resonating through institutional investors who have been pulling out of the digital market en masse. Even the decline in price to levels some would consider a ‘discount’ has not done much to combat this negative sentiment. Institutional investor outflows from bitcoin for the previous week had come out to $453 million.

Related Reading | Ethereum Plugs 11-Week Bleed, why $1,500 May Be On The Horizon

Moreover, the interest in shorter-term positions in BTC is gaining more ground. This is evident in the attention that the ProShares Short Bitcoin has received in the last week. More than $18 million had flowed into the ETF in the first week alone.

Bitcoin is currently trending at $20,000 at the time of this writing. If continues on this trend, the next significant support is existent at $16,500 which could be a shock to the market. 

Featured image from Bitcoinist, chart from TradingView.com

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Ethereum Plugs 11-Week Bleed, why $1,500 May Be On The Horizon

Ethereum has been closing red week after red week for the past 11 weeks. It is the longest red streak that has been recorded in the history of the cryptocurrency, hence, it carried significant implications for the digital asset. Through the decline, it has been one of the worst-hit coins, performing poorly compared to the other cryptocurrencies at this time. However, the digital asset has now closed its first weekly green candle in three months and things are looking up.

Better Days Ahead

With this recovery has come a renewed interest in the digital asset. Coupled with the fact that the digital asset is now trading above its 50-day moving average, it has now solidified a bull trend for the short term. The activity on the network, though reduced, remains high enough to strike renewed faith in the heart of investors. 

Related Reading | Market Wallows In Extreme Fear As Bitcoin Struggles To Hold $20,000

However, there are still things that threaten the price of the cryptocurrency going on another bull rally. The Celsius debacle had been one of the major reasons behind the drawdown below $1,000 and remains a very real threat. The lending protocol which has found itself in a tight spot due to some bad trades remains at risk of being liquidated, and rumors continue to circulate that Celsius is planning to file for bankruptcy, which would mean users would not be able to get their tokens back.

ETH price sees first green weekly close after three months | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

Additionally, Three Arrows Capital’s insolvency had hit the market hard but there is still more to come. This is because it is the leading crypto fund and as such had its hand in a large number of projects in the space, especially DeFi, the majority of which would be significantly affected by the 3AC insolvency.

Ethereum To $1,500

Presently, the price of the digital asset is still trailing $1,200 but there are some things rumored in the market that will likely promote a pump in price. One of these is FTX’s supposed acquisition of the trading platform, Robinhood.

Now, Robinhood is one of the most popular platforms when it comes to trading crypto. However, it has drawn the ire of the community in the past due to its practices. As such, if it were to be acquired by FTX, a trusted crypto exchange, it would mean that FTX would be bringing Robinhood’s massive user base of more than 22 million to the broader crypto community.

Related Reading | Ethereum Fees Touch Monthly Lows As Transaction Volumes Plummet

There is nothing definite regarding the acquisition yet but the sentiment among investors regarding it has been good so far. A rally resulting from such an acquisition could easily see Ethereum grow more than 20% and that would put the digital asset above the $1,500 level once more.

ETH is trading at $1,221 at the time of this wring. It remains the second-largest cryptocurrency in the space with a market cap of $148 billion.

Featured image from CoinMarketCap, chart from TradingView.com

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CME Net Short Exposure Reaches ATH: Why Institutions Are Bearish on Ethereum

Ethereum has seen some selling pressure today and has rolled back on a portion of its gains. The cryptocurrency was bouncing back from below the $1,000 levels but has found hurdles on lower timeframes.

Related Reading | Outflows Rock Bitcoin As Institutional Investors Pull The Plug, More Downside Coming?

At the time of writing, ETH’s price trades at $1,166 with a 3% loss in the last 24 hours and a 3% profit in the past 7 days.

ETH trends to the downside on the 4-hour chart. Source: ETHUSD Tradingview

Ethereum and Binance Coin were two of the best-performing assets in the crypto top 10 market cap. Their gains were able to pull back Bitcoin’s dominance which was close to reclaiming 50% of the sector’s total market cap.

The second crypto in the top 10 decoupled from Bitcoin, while the latter stuck, ETH moved to the upside. When Bitcoin lags, and Ethereum leads, is often considered an indicator of potential downside. In 2021, when Ethereum moved on its own, the crypto market experienced downside price action.

According to Arcane Research, Ethereum not only moved on its own on the spot market, but the futures market saw some interest action. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) ETH futures contracts have been trading at a discount when compared to ETH’s spot price.

This divergence seems to hint at future losses for Ethereum. As seen below, the ETH futures contract has been trending to the downside since the beginning of June 2022 with an increase in open interest.

This is the first time since the launch of this investment product that there is a discrepancy with its spot price. Arcane Research noted the following on why this could be bad news for the second crypto by market cap:

We also note that the Ether-denominated open interest on CME climbed to the highest level since early April on Thursday while seeing a slight decline over the weekend. According to the most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders reports, assets managers are shorting Ether heavily (…).

Source: Arcane Research Are The Ethereum Shorts Justified?

The Arcane Research report claims this is the first-time institutions have been this short on Ethereum. These entities have positions of almost $40 million on the CME trading platform with a slight reduction in the past seven days.

Ethereum is currently in the process of migrating from a Proof-of-Work (PoW) to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus algorithm. Recently, ETH core developers announced the delay of a component that will lead to this upgrade.

Called the “Ethereum Difficulty Bomb” is the mechanism that will enable people to mine ETH. The ETH core developers claimed this will have no impact on the migration, but the market could have a different perspective.

In addition, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler claimed that he is only willing to acknowledge Bitcoin as a commodity. He refused to speak about other cryptocurrencies but claimed the majority fits the description of a security.

Related Reading | Why Crypto Is “Likely To Dump” As It Lags The S&P 500, Expert Says

If Ethereum is classified as a security, the decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFT) and other sectors could be impacted and forced to comply with new regulations. Remains to be seen if these institutions can profit after the crypto market has experienced a massive crash.

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Bitcoin “Reserve Risk” Metric Approaches All-Time Lows

Data shows the Bitcoin “reserve risk” indicator has recently plunged down and is now reaching all-time lows only seen back in 2015 bear and the March 2020 COVID crash.

Bitcoin Reserve Risk Suggests HODLing Relative To Price Is Strong

According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, BTC investors have been holding strong onto their coins despite the large decline in the crypto’s price recently.

Before looking at what the “reserve risk” indicator does, it’s best to get an understanding of a couple concepts first.

A “coin day” is accumulated in the market for each 1 BTC that stays unmoved for a day. The sum of such coin days in the entire market can tell us about how dormant the long-term holder supply has been.

Because of this, the sum of coin days can be an effective way of measuring the conviction of hodlers in the Bitcoin market.

However, there is another way to interpret the coin days and hence the LTH conviction; as Glassnode explains:

Stronger hands will resist the temptation to sell and this collective action builds up an ‘opportunity cost’. Every day HODLers actively decide NOT to sell increases the cumulative unspent ‘opportunity cost’ (called the HODL bank).

The other idea of interest here is the incentive that these LTHs have to sell right now. It is measured through the current price of Bitcoin.

Whenever the price goes up, hodlers become increasingly tempted to realize their profits, and hence the incentive to sell goes up.

Related Reading | First In History: Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Records Lower Value Than Last Cycle’s Low

Now, the reserve risk models the ratio between this “incentive to sell” and the cumulative “opportunity cost” (explained above) of the long-term hodlers. Below is the chart for the indicator.

The value of the indicator seems to have sharply declined recently | Source: Glassnde's The Week Onchain - Week 26, 2022

As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin reserve risk has gone down in recent days and is now approaching all-time lows.

This suggests that despite the plunging price of the coin during 2022, BTC investors have still been holding strong onto their coins.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Monthly Tags Lower Bollinger Band, Tool’s Creator Hints At Bottom

The last time such low values of the metric were observed was back in the late 2015 bear market and the March 2020 crash.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $20.9k, down 1% in the past week. Over the last month, the coin has lost 27% in value.

The below chart shows the trend in the value of the crypto over the past five days.

Looks like the price of BTC has been consolidating sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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Why Crypto Is “Likely To Dump” As It Lags The S&P 500, Expert Says

Bitcoin remains stuck at its current levels. The number one cryptocurrency has been unable to push upwards and could be in danger of revisiting its yearly lows.

Related Reading | Outflows Rock Bitcoin As Institutional Investors Pull The Plug, More Downside Coming? 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $20,700 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours and the past week.

BTC’s price moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

According to crypto analyst Justin Bennett, Bitcoin is hinting at further losses. The cryptocurrency stayed rangebound even as the traditional market rallied.

Bitcoin has displayed a high correlation with traditional equities. In particular, the price of Bitcoin seems to be moving in tandem with the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 Index.

However, this dynamic has been changing in short timeframes making BTC a lagger as equities trend upwards. Bennett believes this is an indicator of a fakeout, a false upwards movement before a re-test of previous support.

At the moment, the analyst claims, there is nothing more important for BTC’s price than equities. Via Twitter, Bennett wrote the following and shared the chart below:

Everything for #crypto boils down to this…Does the S&P 500 fail to hold above 3,880? If so, and we get a 1h close below, this latest rally becomes a fakeout, and we likely get the next leg lower for stocks and crypto alike. Everything else is just noise. You could literally trade BTC using nothing but the S&P chart above. As of now, it looks like this level will fail.

S&P 500 breaks below major trendline and hints at further losses, will BTC’s price follow? Source: Justin Bennett via Twitter

As seen in the chart above, the S&P 500 broke below a major trendline and seems to be heading towards critical support at 3,800. Bitcoin seems to be holding its levels despite the S&P 500 price action, but Bennett ruled out the possibility of a “fakeout” due to the overall weakness in the market.

I've seen a few comments stating that this could be a fakeout.

The fakeout to the upside already occurred. The last 1h close confirmed it.

No guarantees, but fakeouts of fakeouts are rare. pic.twitter.com/GQjKCwzRm9

— Justin Bennett (@JustinBennettFX) June 28, 2022

Bitcoin Levels To Watch In Case Of Further Losses

Data from Material Indicators shows liquidity on crypto exchange Binance has been constantly moving around current levels. There are over $30 million in bids orders below BTC’s price which could provide important support.

However, as seen below, asks orders to have been swelling which could prevent BTC’s price to break above $21,000 and get out of the danger zone. Analysts from Material Indicators identified the levels between $17,000 and $19,000 as the next potential area for Bitcoin.

Related Reading | Glassnode Deems 2022 Bear Market As The Most Atrocious For BTC And All Cryptocurrencies

At those levels, there are important pools of liquidity, and the price of Bitcoin tends to trend towards these levels. The analyst added:

This looks like a ladder of #BTC bids that intends to get filled. Time will tell if it gets filled where it rests or if it needs to adjust closer to the active trading range.

The highlighted box is BTC’s largest liquidity zone and a potential target in case of more downside price action. Source: Material Indicators via Twitter

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Outflows Rock Bitcoin As Institutional Investors Pull The Plug, More Downside Coming?

Outflows have been the order of the day since the price of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin had begun to crash. The same sentiment had spread through individual as well as institutional investors, leading to massive sell-offs in the space. Despite the price of bitcoin recovering in recent times, it seems that the sellers are not done just yet as outflows had ramped up over the last week.

$453 Million Leaves Bitcoin

Bitcoin had been seeing a reversal trend with inflows coming in for the prior week. However, this has only been short-lived as outflows have continued to rock the digital asset. For the last week, CoinShares reports that bitcoin had led the outflow trend and the net outflows had come out to $453 million for the digital asset. It is one of the largest outflows ever recorded for the digital asset and has wiped out the majority of inflows on a year-to-date basis.

Related Reading | Bitcoin May Not Reclaim All-Time High For Another Two Years, Binance CEO

This comes as bitcoin’s price had continued to fluctuate around $20,000 over the last week. It was expected that the low prices would trigger more inflows into the market for the past week but the opposite has been the case. The total assets under management (AuM) for bitcoin now sits at $24.5 billion, the lowest it has been in more than a year. 

BTC recovres above $21,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Its short-bitcoin counterpart had gone a different path this week where inflows had been the order of the day. The $15 million that flowed into it is said to be a result of the first US-based short investment product which launched last week. Given that the older short-bitcoin investment products had recorded outflows for the same time frame, all fingers point towards the launch.

Ethereum also saw inflows, a first in three months. It came out to a total of $11 million flowing into the altcoin after suffering 11 weeks of outflows.

North American Outflows Grow Worse

The outflows have been localized to one specific region and that is the North American corner of the market. CoinShares notes that the majority of the outflows had come from Canadian exchanges. Specifically, one provider. Most of the outflows had been seen on 17th June but did not show up until last week. It shows that these sell-offs had been a trigger for bitcoin’s decline to $17,700.

Related Reading | Crypto Liquidations Settle As Bitcoin Recovers Above $21,000

Digital asset investment product outflows were just as large with $423 million flowing out of the market, a new record for the space. However, given the lag that led to the trades from the Canadian exchanges updating late, it is important to know that these outflows were not from last week alone. When these outflows are removed and marked to their correct time frames, it shows that inflows of $70 million had been recorded by other providers.

The last time record outflows were seen was at the start of the year when $198 million had left the market in a single week in January. The outflows recorded for last week have surpassed this by more than 100%, although the ratio to the assets under management remains low compared to the bear market outflows of 2018 where outflows had reached as high as 1.6% of total AuM. 

Featured image from MARCA, chart from TradingView.com

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Fetch.ai Announces DabbaFlow, A File Sharing and Data Management Platform

Fetch.ai, the development team building an open-source, machine learning-powered network for smart infrastructure and customizable dApps, has launched DabbaFlow.

In a press release, Fetch.ai said the ready-made and end-to-end encrypted file-sharing system is the first of its kind and would empower businesses and entities to take control of their data privately and securely. Notably, DabbaFlow leverages the benefits of the Fetch.ai blockchain to ensure privacy preservation of all sensitive data transmitted on its rails. All data piped through the product will be auditable and secure, a guarantee vital for maintaining and protecting business reputation.

The solution is borne out of necessity, considering the exponential expansion of data online accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic of early 2020. With more businesses coming online and uploading data, there is also an increased risk of hacks and unauthorized access by third parties. These breaches can be consequential to victims and businesses, mainly if they are engaged in data-sensitive sectors like healthcare and finance. The resulting loss of business and reputational damage can adversely affect the entity’s ability to expand, partner, or even do business.

Accordingly, the demand for a secure file-sharing platform is paramount. Fetch.ai is, therefore, timely providing a solution to cater to businesses desirous of using a superior product in the digital age to shield data against unapproved access while being a conduit for further processing. DabbaFlow, according to Humayun Sheikh, Founder, and CEO of Fetch.ai, offers a file transfer system and is also a data management tool for creating “powerful AI models”.

“If data is the new oil, we need rigs and refineries that keep up with the times. People are beginning to understand how valuable their data is. With the paradigm-shifting towards more secure and decentralized solutions, new business models are emerging. DabbaFlow is here to provide the data management tools to create powerful AI models that are relevant to a distributed web.”

DabbaFlow provides multiple layers of encryption, high performance, and end-user control while remaining private and secure. Fetch.ai creators have said the product is their first push in their overarching mission of linking artificial intelligence with web3. Besides offering a file transfer system, the tool will provide Fetch.ai’s CoLearn with a reliable and auditable data layer with robust controls. With this provision, it becomes easier for clients to use data and interact with machine learning models for deeper, more thorough analysis

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TA: Bitcoin Dips Further, Why BTC Could Revisit $20K

Bitcoin is moving lower below the $21,000 zone against the US Dollar. BTC could gain bearish momentum below the $20,650 support zone.

• Bitcoin struggled to rise above $21,200 and declined towards $20,650.
• The price is now below the $21,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $21,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair could decline further if there is a clear move below the $20,650 zone.

Bitcoin Price Remains At Risk

Bitcoin price failed to clear the $21,500 resistance zone and started a fresh decline. The price declined below the $21,200 and $21,000 levels.

There was a clear move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $19,751 swing low to $21,780 high. There was also a close below the $20,800 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Bitcoin tested the $20,600 and $20,500 support levels. It is now consolidating near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $19,751 swing low to $21,780 high. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $21,920 level.

The next key resistance is near the $21,000 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $21,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A clear move above the $21,000 level might start a decent increase.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

In the stated case, the price could rise above the $21,250 level. The next major stop might be near the $21,780 high, above which the price may perhaps rise towards the $22,500 level.

More Losses in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to clear the $21,250 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. An immediate support on the downside is near the $20,650 zone and $20,500.

A downside break below the $20,650 support zone could start a major decline. In the stated case, the price might slide towards the $20,000 level. Any more losses could set the pace for a move towards the $19,200 level or even $18,800 in the coming sessions.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $20,500, followed by $20,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $20,920, $21,250 and $22,500.

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Dogecoin Has Formed A Bullish Reversal Pattern, What’s Next?

Dogecoin’s price has been optimistic over the last week. The coin secured double digit gains over the last seven days, it rose by nearly 20%. The meme-coin has been experiencing rigid resistance at the $0.07 level and if it trades around the current price level, it could fall to its next support line of $0.05.

The bulls have tried to show signs of recovery as the coin tried to move upwards slowly over the past few days. On the shorter time frame, DOGE has lost some of its market value. Over the last 24 hours, Dogecoin depreciated by 4%.

Technical outlook for the coin has also depicted some bullishness as the coin went north by almost 20%. Buying strength also recovered over the last week, but as the meme-coin depicted some bearishness over the shorter time frame, currently sellers are more in number.

Even though on the four-hour chart DOGE depicted negative price movement, the coin has displayed a bullish reversal pattern. The global cryptocurrency market cap today is $979 Billion with a 2.9% fall in the last 24 hours.

Dogecoin Price Analysis: One Day Chart Dogecoin flashed a bullish reversal on the one day chart | Source: DOGEUSD on TradingView

DOGE was priced at $0.072 on the one hour chart. The coin has been stuck at the same resistance level for a couple of weeks now. A fall from the current price level will push Dogecoin to $0.060, failing to stay above which the coin can attempt to trade at $0.047.

Overhead resistance for the coin stood at $0.08 and then at $0.09. On a relatively longer time frame, the coin has formed a bullish reversal pattern.

The pattern is called the BARR Bottom pattern. The BARR Bottom pattern is referred to as a bump-and-run reversal bottom pattern.

This technical pattern is tied to an extended trend reversal in an ongoing bear market. The pattern is characterised by three phases which are the Lead-In phase, Bump and finally the Run phase.

At the current moment, Dogecoin was in the bump phase which will be followed by the run phase that will overturn the bearish price action.

If this happens the coin could touch the $0.090 and then the $0.011 level. Volume of Dogecoin traded fell indicating that the buying strength has fallen on the chart.

Technical Analysis Dogecoin noted a small downtick in buying strength on the four hour chart | Source: DOGEUSD on TradingView

DOGE was inclining towards a bearish price action. It even formed a rising wedge pattern on the four hour chart.

The Relative Strength Index also depicted a downtick signifying that buyers were fading out of the market. A rising wedge pattern is tied to a bearish price signal.

It could be possible that over the immediate trading sessions DOGE might register some bearishness. On the longer time frame, the coin could recover.

On the 20-SMA indicator, the coin was above the 20-SMA line. This indicated that despite falling buying pressure, buyers were still driving the price momentum.

Related Reading | TA: Ethereum Bulls In Control, Why ETH Could Clear $1,300

Dogecoin flashed a sell signal on the four hour chart | Source: DOGEUSD on TradingView

In consonance with the technical outlook on the four-hour chart, the coin registered a sell signal. The Awesome Oscillator which depicts the price momentum painted a red signal bar.

The red signal bar is tied to a sell signal on the chart. Parabolic SAR indicates the current trend and also the trend reversals.

Dotted lines underneath the candlesticks are a signal of bearishness on the chart. It could be so that that the coin might dip over the immediate trading sessions and then move upwards.

Related Reading | Cardano Formed This Pattern On Its Chart, Where Is The Coin Headed?

Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Ethereum Fees Touch Monthly Lows As Transaction Volumes Plummet

Ethereum fees had touched new highs thanks to the popularity of the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. As network activity had grown, so had the transaction volumes. The effects continue to linger even into the bear market, although fluctuations between low and high are now more common in the space. Presently, transaction volumes have fallen sharply and ETH fees have now plummeted to monthly lows.

Ethereum Transactions At $0.5

Ethereum transaction fees have declined to one of their lowest points this year. Gas costs which have been fluctuating between high and low seem to have found their resting place at lower prices. In the early hours of Monday, the gas costs for the Ethereum network had declined to their lowest point for June. It sat at only 19.8 Gwei per transaction at the time of this writing, which converted to about $0.5 per transaction on the network. 

Related Reading | Bitcoin May Not Reclaim All-Time High For Another Two Years, Binance CEO

This translates to a more than 80% drawdown from the peak of the gas costs last week at 151.3 Gwei per transaction. This coincides with a decline in transaction volume on the network, as shown on Messari.

The data aggregation website shows that Ethereum’s transaction volume is down more than 80% from its monthly high. On the 13 of June, transaction volumes on the network had sat at more than $10 billion in real volume. Today, the real volume was sitting at $570 million, the lowest it has been for the month.

ETH price declines to $1,179 | Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

Supply has also taken a hit in the month of June. By the end of last month, there was more than 8.6% of all total ETH supply in DeFi. However, as of the time of this writing, there is less than 8.3% of the circulating supply in DeFi. This also translates to a dollar value of under $10 billion when three weeks ago, the value was at $30 billion.

ETH Profitability Tanks

With the recovery in the price of Ethereum has come some good tidings for investors. But, there is still a gap in the profitability levels from last year compared to this year. Going into the last month of the year in 2021, more than 80% of ETH investors had been swimming in profit. Given that the digital asset had hit a new all-time high in November, this was expected.

However, there is a significant drawdown from this point. Data from IntoTheBlock shows that while the majority of ETH investors remain in profit, it is only by a small margin. 52% of wallets are currently in the green while 47% are in loss. This puts only 2% of all investors in the neutral territory, which remains shaky.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Perpetual Open Interest Suggests Short Squeeze Led To Crash

When it comes to the growth of the network, there is more negative sentiment among investors. The major reason for this is all of the competitors that are moving into the DeFi and NFT space. Solana especially has been giving Ethereum a run for its money in the NFT game, triggering an exodus towards the network which offers faster transactions and lower fees.

Nevertheless, Ethereum remains the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Currently trading at $1,200 at the time of this writing, the cryptocurrency boasts a market cap of $149 billion.

Featured image from CryptoSlate, chart from TradingView.com

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“Buy The Dip” Sentiment Fails To Save Crypto Market, New Data Reveals Why

Since crypto prices have fallen to their lowest point, now is the ideal time to “Buy-the-Dip.” But during these brief price declines, traders appear to be shorting cryptocurrency more than they are buying it.

“Buy-the-Dip” Sentiments Does Not Stop Crypto Shorting

More short sales or shorting occur in altcoins than in bitcoin. In the past day, short holdings in Bitcoin (BTC) have averaged roughly 51% across exchanges, while short positions in altcoins have averaged about 55%.

BTC/USD hovers around $20k. Source: TradingView

Santiment, an on-chain analytics tool, states that data on the average funding rate for Bitcoin and altcoins relative to the price of bitcoin shows that traders continue to short altcoins at every minor decline. The long/short ratio for Bitcoin, in contrast, is unchanged despite price swings.

“As prices gradually fell on Sunday, traders have shown that though they may proclaim to be buyingthedip, they are shorting more on these mini drops. Interestingly, this only applies to altcoins right now, indicating that Bitcoin is being flocked to as the safe haven.”

According to Coinglass data, traders kept shorting crypto on Monday. In the last 24 hours, a $25 million liquidation of Ethereum (ETH) witnessed 56 percent shorts. Polkadot (DOT), Solana (SOL), XRP, Cardano (ADA), and BNB, meanwhile, saw 55 percent, 59 percent, 63 percent, 67 percent, and 53 percent shorts.

Related reading | Bitcoin Perpetual Open Interest Suggests Short Squeeze Led To Crash

Bitcoin and Altcoin Short Selling. Source: Santiment

It’s interesting to note that in the past 24 hours, short positions in Tether (USDT) have increased by 85% across exchanges. Some short sellers think that Chinese real estate brokers back the majority of Tether’s assets in commercial paper. Since the previous month, USDT has experienced significant redemptions, causing its market cap to drop close to $66 billion.

Amidst a dim market outlook, hedge funds are also progressively shorting the U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin Tether (USDT).

Liquidation OF Altcoins Rises Amid Short Selling

Liquidations are also increasing as traders continue to short altcoins. Altcoins that were actively traded in the morning are currently in the negative. Due to a recent increase in liquidation, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has decreased by around 4% during the past 24 hours. Other altcoins have also given up gains and are currently declining.

Related reading | Doom To Fail: Tether Shorts Pile In As Hedge Funds Seek To Profit From Crypto Winter

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Bitcoin Monthly Tags Lower Bollinger Band, Tool’s Creator Hints At Bottom

Bitcoin price action on monthly timeframes has made a historic move to the touch the lower Bollinger Band – a popular technical indicator and volatility measuring tool.

Although he warns there isn’t yet a sign that a bottom is in, the tool’s creator says where price action tapped is a “logical” level for such a bottom to occur.

Unprecedented Bitcoin Price Action Taps Monthly Bollinger Band For First Time In History

Expectations for Bitcoin price in 2022 were closer to $100,000 per coin and above. Yet the top cryptocurrency today is trading close to its former 2017 all-time high at $20,000.

But unprecedented macro conditions has caused unprecedented price action in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Never in the past has the top cryptocurrency by market cap retested its former all-time high this way.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Weekly RSI Sets Record For Most Oversold In History, What Comes Next?

And never did Bitcoin price on monthly timeframes ever reach the lower Bollinger Band. But that’s exactly what happened this past month when crypto market contagion spread and brought asset prices down considerably.

BTCUSD monthly touches down on the lower Bollinger Band | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Touching the lower Bollinger Band, however, could be a logical place for a bottom according to the tool’s creator.

Time To Pay Attention: John Bollinger Points Out Logical Level For Potential Bottom

The Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool that can help to measure and predict volatility, or find areas of potential resistance and support. It was created in the 1980s by John Bollinger, who today is a frequent Bitcoin speculator. It relies on a 20-period simple moving average and a dynamic upper and lower band set each at two standard deviations.

Mr. Bollinger pointed out the touch of the lower Bollinger Band in a new tweet, where he suggests the area would be a “logical” level to bottom. Bollinger did warn, however, that there still aren’t signs of such bottoming yet.

In the past, Bollinger was able to call out the April 2021 peak by spotting a “three pushes to a high” bearish reversal pattern with striking accuracy. The analyst says his tools later confirmed what he says was an “M-type” double top.

Picture perfect double (M-type) top in BTCUSD on the monthly chart complete with confirmation by BandWidth and %b leads to a tag of the lower Bollinger Band. No sign of one yet, but this would be a logical place to put in a bottom.https://t.co/KsDyQsCO1F

— John Bollinger (@bbands) June 27, 2022

Bollinger also shared in his chart a look at ancillary indicator, B%, which also has set historical lows. Monthly Bollinger Band Width can be used to measure volatility, and still has room to fall compared to past cycles.

Related Reading | Is Bitcoin Like Buying Google Early? Check Out The Shocking Comparison

Does Bitcoin price have more room to fall also? Or will a bottom form in this “logical” zone as the tool’s creator calls attention to? Either way, it seems to be “time to pay attention.”

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

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First In History: Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Records Lower Value Than Last Cycle’s Low

The Bitcoin Mayer Multiple has recently sunk to a lower value than the bottom of the previous cycle. This is the first time in the history of the metric that such a trend has formed.

Current Bitcoin Cycle’s Mayer Multiple Low Is Deeper Than Last Cycle’s

As per data released from the analytics firm Glassnode, the current value of the BTC Mayer Multiple is around 0.478.

Before seeing what the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple does, it’s best to look at a basic explanation of a “moving average” first.

A moving average (or MA in short) is an analytical tool that averages out the value of any quantity over a specific period of time.

As its name implies, it moves forward along with the quantity, and changes its value accordingly. An MA can be taken over any timespan, whether that be 100 days, 72 hours, or even10 seconds.

Related Reading | Why Pain May Not Be Over For Bitcoin Holders Just Yet

The bigger MAs are usually quite useful for long-term analysis as they smooth out any irrelevant short-term fluctuations.

One popular moving average for Bitcoin is the 200-day MA, which has historically indicated a bear market whenever the price has went below it, and a bull market whenever the price has crossed over it.

Now, what the Mayer Multiple does is measure how much the price of the crypto has deviated from this 200-day MA.

The below chart shows the trend in the metric over the course of the history of Bitcoin:

The value of the metric seems to have been below 0.5 in recent weeks | Source: Glassnode

In the graph, the blue line is for the Bitcoin 200-day MA and the green curve represents the points where the Mayer Multiple would have a value of 0.5.

As is apparent from the chart, the price of the crypto has sunk below this 0.5 Mayer Multiple line only a few times in the past.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Approaches Zero, Selloff Ending?

In fact, out of the total 4163 trading days for the cryptocurrency so far, only 87 have been spent below the green line, which comes out to be about only 2%.

A pattern that the Mayer Multiple followed before this cycle was that all successive cycles observed higher bottoms than the low of the previous one.

In the cycle so far, the metric has already dipped to 0.478, which is less than last cycle’s bottom of about 0.511. This is a first occurrence in the history of Bitcoin.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $21.2k, up 3% in the past week.

Looks like the value of the crypto has moved sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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Bit.com Plans to Double Workforce as Layoffs Mount in Crypto and Financial Markets

The crypto markets are going through a rough phase. Bitcoin has crashed more than 70% in 8 months. Amidst the crash, several companies are laying off their employees, desperately trying to save cash.

However, not all companies are facing the hammer of fate. Bit.com, the second-largest crypto options exchange, seeks to double its workforce amidst layoffs. But why?

Let’s explore.

The Crypto Recession

Crypto winter is frequently used in the cryptocurrency, DeFi and blockchain industry to denote the current recession that has hit the industry after it made phenomenal gains in 2021. The global economic condition, post-COVID economic losses and record inflation worldwide have led to mass layoffs in the industry.

Coinbase recently trimmed off 18% of its employees to save cash. BlockFi announced the layoff of 400 employees. Crypto.com also wants to lay off a similar number of employees.

However, these layoffs also bring an opportunity to hire some of the best minds in the industry. These are talented people suffering at the hands of fate.

Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange offering spot, futures, perpetual contracts, options and savings. They are one of the top 3 exchanges for cryptocurrency options . The exchange is launched by Matrixport, which is already a Unicorn With a $1B Valuation in 2021. The exchange has its core principles built around security and risk management features. A top-grade firm, Cactus Custody, handles its security. Jihan Wu founded Matrixport in 2019 and the mining rig manufacturer Bitmain.

Recently they have announced to launch USD options within the next few months as a part of their service portfolio.

Bit.com hiring amid layoffs

Bit.com is hiring because it is a golden opportunity.

With so many qualified personnel joining the talent pool and ready to get hired at a moment’s notice, it is a dream come true for many. For example, several exchanges will be desperate to hire Coinbase employees. The reputation gives them a distinct advantage.

Bit.com is taking the maximum benefit of this opportunity by hiring the best talents available in the industry. As per media reports, they are seeking to double their workforce, with a majority of the new hires to be engineers. Undoubtedly this workforce will have a majority of highly skilled employees hired at reasonable salary packages due to the ongoing market crisis.

“We have experienced the ups and downs, and we also committed to the potential future. Crypto enthusiasts and experienced talents are welcome to join Bit.com” said Lan Yue, COO of Bit.com. 

A drawback of such hiring could temporarily affect the company’s finances. But we can safely assume that the executives have thought about this before going on such a hiring spree.

As claimed by Lan: ”Bit.com has been hiring and growing aggressively since the beginning of 2022. The recent collapse of the market has no direct impact on our original runway, we have the capacity to stick to our developing and hiring plan. Bear market may bring our users negative sentiment, it also brings us time to strenghten our product and risk management for the next bull market”

A few benefits that they might derive from this hiring are, for example, that they can choose from a large, diverse talent pool. Also, they will get experienced candidates from top competitors that are difficult to get otherwise. Lastly, employees could join immediately without any notice or waiting period. Which will give Bit.com a fast push in its talent strategy.

However, this could also backfire in several ways, starting from putting stress on finances. There is severe uncertainty in the US economy, a major source of capital funding for cryptocurrencies and a major market. Further, several jurisdictions have a severe regulatory crackdown on cryptocurrency companies, including high taxation (30% in India) while European countries seek a ban on the proof-of-work system. All of this, combined with high inflation, is expected to affect the buying capacity of crypto investors and traders.

Conclusion

The world’s economic downturn has also had a bad effect on the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry. With layoffs and cost-cutting from several big crypto companies, there is an opportunity for many companies like Bit.com to hire in good numbers. If this activity goes well with hiring, they could highly benefit from having top-of-the-line professionals in their company.

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TA: Ethereum Bulls In Control, Why ETH Could Clear $1,300

Ethereum is slowly moving higher above the $1,200 zone against the US Dollar. ETH could continue to rise unless there is a clear move below the $1,150 support.

• Ethereum is facing resistance near the $1,250 and $1,280 levels.
• The price is now trading above $1,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $1,225 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
• The pair could gain bullish momentum if there is a clear move above the $1,250 resistance.

Ethereum Price Eyes More Gains

Ethereum remained well supported above the $1,150 level. ETH gained pace for a move above the $1,200 resistance zone to move into a positive zone.

There was also a spike above the $1,250 resistance and a close above the 100 hourly simple moving average. Ether price traded as high as $1,281 and recently corrected gains. There was a move below the $1,250 level. The price declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,042 swing low to $1,281 high.

Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $1,225 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The price is now trading above $1,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,225 level. The next major resistance is near the $1,250 zone. A clear move above the $1,250 resistance zone could start a steady increase. In the stated case, the price could even surpass the $1,280 level.

Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

The next major resistance is near the $1,320 level. Any more gains could start a move towards the $1,440 resistance in the near term.

Fresh Decline in ETH?

If ethereum fails to rise above the $1,250 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. An initial support on the downside is near the $1,200 zone and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

The next major support is near the $1,115 zone. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,042 swing low to $1,281 high. A close below the $1,150 level might start another decline. In the stated case, ether price may perhaps decline towards the $1,050 level.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is now gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now near the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $1,150

Major Resistance Level – $1,250

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Cardano Formed This Pattern On Its Chart, Where Is The Coin Headed?

Cardano was bullish on the chart, as market movers picked up optimistic price movement, so did ADA. Over the last 24 hours, the coin rose close to 6% and in the last week, and in the past week ADA secured a 12% gain. The coin has been trading between the range of $0.46 and $0.51 over the last few days.

Price of Cardano has steadied itself at the $0.51 price level. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum also logged double digit gains in the past week. Technical of ADA pointed towards bullishness, however, it is crucial that the coin moves past its rigid resistance of $0.51.

A move above the $0.51 mark can help Cardano secure another 6% appreciation. Buying strength had grown over the past few trading sessions, however, if ADA continues to remain at the current price mark then buyers can exit the market. The coin noted a slight fall in buying strength on the four hour chart.

Cardano Price Analysis: Four Hour Chart Cardano was priced at $0.51 on the four hour chart | Source: ADAUSD on TradingView

ADA was trading at $0.51 on the four hour chart. The coin has been facing considerable resistance at the $0.51 mark and it hasn’t been able to move past it despite daily gains. The next price ceiling for the coin stood at $0.53, if ADA manages to trade above that then the bulls could stick around for long.

A fall from the current price level will push ADA to trade near the $0.48 level. Cardano portrayed bullishness and it formed an ascending triangle pattern in agreement with the same. Trading volume of the coin has remained low indicating that there has been a fall in buying pressure.

Technical Analysis Cardano depicted a fall in buying strength on the four hour chart | Source: ADAUSD on TradingView

ADA formed an ascending triangle but it also noted a fall in buyers in the market. If there is continued fall in buying strength then the altcoin’s price can soon walk on a bearish trajectory.

The Relative Strength Index was parked above the half-line which is a sign of increased buying strength, however, there was a small downtick on the indicator.

Despite the downtick, Cardano was above the 20-SMA line, which meant that there was significant buying strength and buyers were driving the price momentum in the market.

Related Reading | Why Pain May Not Be Over For Bitcoin Holders Just Yet

Cardano flashed a buy signal on the four hour chart | Source: ADAUSD on TradingView

ADA’s buying strength fell but the coin displayed a buy signal. The Awesome Oscillator portray the price direction and the trend of the coin.

AO depicted green histograms which can be construed as buying signal for the coin.

Directional Movement Index outline the price direction of the altcoin and also highlights the change in the same. DMI was positive as the +DI was above the -DI line which indicates bullishness on the chart.

Suggested Reading | Sandbox (SAND) Blows Up 20% Over Last 24 Hours Following ‘Takeover’ Rumors

Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com

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TA: Bitcoin Dips Could Be Limited, Why 100 SMA Is The Key

Bitcoin is showing positive signs above the $21,000 zone against the US Dollar. BTC might start a fresh increase and could even clear the $21,750 resistance zone.

• Bitcoin remains well supported above the $21,000 and $20,500 levels.
• The price is now above the $20,800 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $21,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair could gain bullish momentum if it stays above $20,500 and the 100 hourly SMA.

Bitcoin Price Remains Supported

Bitcoin price started a decent increase above the $20,000 resistance zone. The price was able to clear the $20,500 level to move into a positive zone.

There was a steady move above the $21,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. However, the bears were again active near the $21,700 and $21,750 levels. A high was formed near $21,780 and the price started a downside correction.

Bitcoin traded below the $21,500 level. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $19,750 swing low to $21,780 high.

Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $21,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. It is now consolidating above the $21,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $21,250 level.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The next key resistance is near the $21,750 level. A clear move above the $21,750 level might start a decent increase. In the stated case, the price could rise above the $22,200 level. Any more gains could send the price towards the $23,000 resistance zone.

Fresh Decline in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to clear the $21,750 resistance zone, it could start another decline. An immediate support on the downside is near the $21,000 level and the 100 hourly SMA.

The first major support is near the $20,750 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $19,750 swing low to $21,780 high. A downside break below the $20,750 support could put a lot of pressure on the bulls in the near term. In the stated case, the price might slide towards the $20,000 level.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now just below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $21,000, followed by $20,750.

Major Resistance Levels – $21,250, $21,750 and $23,000.

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XRP Steady At $0.36, Could The Bulls Be Back?

XRP has been moving laterally over the last few days and the price has steadied at $0.36. After facing consistent resistance at the $0.35 price mark, the coin finally managed to move past the aforementioned price ceiling.

The altcoin has been trading in the green over the last 24 hours, it rose by 1.5%. In the past week, XRP appreciated by double digits. Recently, on the developmental front XRP has plans to extend its operations to Canada in order to make that a new Crypto Hub.

The coin has displayed positive sentiments as XRP managed to touch $0.38 on its chart. Shortly after touching the $0.38 level, it displayed a pull back. Buying power also increased as the coin displayed price optimism, the asset was even overbought over the last couple of days.

After the price correction, XRP has retreated from the overbought region. The global cryptocurrency market cap today is $1.01 Trillion with a 1.4% positive change in the last 24 hours.

XRP Price Analysis: Four Hour Chart XRP was priced at $0.36 on the four hour chart | Source: XRPUSD on TradingView

The altcoin was trading at $0.36 on the four hour chart. The overhead resistance for the coin stood at $0.38, XRP pulled back right after it touched the aforementioned price level. The technical outlook of the coin painted an incoming bullish price move.

If XRP manages to breach the $0.38 level then the coin might trade around the $0.46 level. After this, XRP could attempt to reach the $0.52 resistance mark.

Immediate support level for the coin stood at $0.34. A fall from $0.34 support line can push the altcoin to $0.29. Trading volume dipped considerably which signified that buying has also declined on the charts.

Technical Analysis XRP flashed increased number of buyers on the four hour chart | Source: XRPUSD on TradingView

The altcoin registered buying strength on the chart. XRP finally had touched the overbought zone this month, the last time the coin was overbought was in the past month. The Relative Strength Index was positive at the time of writing.

The indicator was above the 50-mark which signified heavy buying strength. Although the coin noted a slight downtick on the RSI, there were more number of buyers than sellers in the market. On the 20-SMA, XRP was above the line. This meant that buyers drove the price momentum in the market.

The coin was also peeping above the 200-SMA line which is considered extremely bullish, however, if buying pressure fades the bears could be back.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Approaches Zero, Selloff Ending?

XRP noted a sell signal on the four hour chart | Source: XRPUSD on TradingView

The coin after noting significant increase in buying strength has flashed a sell signal. Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicates the price momentum and also reversals in the same. MACD underwent a bearish crossover, the red histograms painted a sell signal on the chart.

This reading was in consonance with the downtick noted on the RSI. Average Directional Index points towards a price trend, the indicator was seen above the 20-mark, this reading is tied to a possibility of continued price action in the same direction indicating bullishness.

Suggested Reading | Bitcoin Regains Some Luster With 15% Rally To $21,700 – Can It Maintain The Shine?

Featured image from UnSplash, chart from TradingView.com

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Why Pain May Not Be Over For Bitcoin Holders Just Yet

Past trend of the Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR (EMA 30) may suggest that BTC holders may face more pain in the coming months.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR Has Dropped Below “One” Recently

As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, BTC investors may be in for a frustrating few months if history is anything to go by.

The “spent output profit ratio” (or SOPR in short) is an indicator that tells us whether Bitcoin investors are selling at a profit or at a loss right now.

The metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin being sold on the chain, to see what price it was last moved at.

If the previous selling price of any coin was less than the current value of BTC, then the coin has just been sold for a profit.

On the other hand, the past value being more than the latest price of the crypto would imply the coin has moved at a loss.

When the value of the SOPR is greater than one, it means the overall Bitcoin market is selling at a profit right now.

Related Reading | Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Approaches Zero, Selloff Ending?

On the other hand, values of the indicator less than one imply investors as a whole are realizing some loss at the moment.

Now, the “long-term holder” (LTH) group includes any Bitcoin investor who has been holding their coins since at least 155 days ago without moving or selling.

The below chart shows the trend in the SOPR over the history of the crypto specifically for these LTHs.

Looks like the 30-day exponential-MA value of the indicator has gone down recently | Source: CryptoQuant

In the above graph, the quant has highlighted all the regions of relevant trend for the Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR.

It seems like during past bottoms, the indicator’s EMA-30 value has gone below one and trended sideways there for a while (except for the COVID-19 crash, where the metric didn’t stay in the zone for too long).

Related Reading | Bitcoin Whale Presence On Derivatives Still High, More Volatility Ahead?

Recently, the LTH SOPR’s value has once again gone below one, suggesting long-term holders are realizing losses right now.

The analyst notes that while such capitulation events have historically lead to bottom formations, it may still be a while, even months, before a low is actually found.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $21.4k, up 11% in the past week. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the value of the coin over the last five days:

The price of the coin seems to have surged up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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